President Donald Trump secured a victory as his endorsed candidate, Anthony DiLorenzo, won the Republican primary in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District. DiLorenzo, who defeated Hollie Noveletsky, the former vice chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party, garnered 51.5% of the vote compared to Noveletsky’s 26.8%, according to The Associated Press, which announced the results at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

Despite Trump’s strong influence in recent Republican primaries, his support does not always ensure victory for his endorsed candidates. There have been instances where other Republicans have defeated Trump-backed candidates.

DiLorenzo’s win exemplifies Trump’s sustained popularity among GOP voters. A recent poll from the University of New Hampshire had cautioned about DiLorenzo’s odds, showing Noveletsky with a slight advantage of 3 points, 28% to 25%. The poll surveyed 443 Republican voters from August 20 to 24, 2026.

Donald Trump’s Endorsement Record

Trump endorsed DiLorenzo, a local businessman, via Truth Social on July 13, commending him as a “very successful Businessman and Entrepreneur.”

“It is my Great Honor to endorse America First Patriot, Anthony DiLorenzo, who is running to represent the fantastic people of New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District!” Trump wrote.

Throughout the midterms, Trump has endorsed hundreds of candidates nationwide, with Ballotpedia reporting a 96% success rate in primaries. However, some endorsed candidates have been defeated by other Republicans.

For instance, Representative Andy Ogles in Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District lost to Charlie Hatcher, the former commissioner of agriculture endorsed by Governor Bill Lee. Similarly, in Florida’s 19th District, Trump-backed Catalina Lauf was defeated by Jim Schwartzel in a bid to succeed Representative Byron Donalds, who is running for governor.

In Michigan’s 8th District, Amir Hassan, Trump’s preferred candidate, lost to rival Thomas J. Smith, a Republican who had suspended his campaign and endorsed another candidate prior to the election. Moreover, several Trump-backed gubernatorial candidates have lost their primaries, including Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones in Georgia and Representative Randy Feenstra in Iowa.

Nonetheless, Trump’s endorsement record remains bolstered by his enduring popularity among Republican voters. Despite a decrease in his national approval rating since his last term, his backing continues among Republicans. Recent polls highlight this trend.

A recent poll by YouGov and The Economist showed Trump’s overall net approval at -24 points, with 36% approving and 60% disapproving. Among Republicans, his net approval rating was significantly higher at +62 points, indicating continued support. The survey included 1,592 adults and was conducted from August 28 to 31, 2026.

Republicans’ Chances of Flipping NH-01

While polling for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District has not been publicly disclosed, prediction markets lean towards Democrats retaining the seat. As of Tuesday, Kalshi projected an 88% chance for Democrats to win, while Polymarket placed Democrats’ odds at 89%. The district, having backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by over 2 points in the 2024 election, remains competitive.

Despite unfavorable national conditions attributed to Trump’s declining approval rating, Democrats anticipate holding the seat in November. Republicans, however, are optimistic that the anticipated blue wave won’t affect New Hampshire, especially with GOP Governor Kelly Ayotte favored to win reelection and a competitive Senate race underway.

The 1st District, generally more competitive than the second, consists of New Hampshire’s eastern regions. While Democrats often secure substantial margins in areas like Portsmouth and Dover, Manchester exhibits Democratic leanings but less dominantly, as seen with Harris’ win by fewer than 8 points. Tourist areas near the White Mountains also see Democratic support.

Republicans perform better in suburban areas adjacent to Manchester and towns in the Lakes Region, maintaining the district’s competitiveness in recent elections.

Chris Pappas, the current Democratic representative, has consistently won reelection by wider margins. In 2024, he won by 8 points and defeated Karoline Leavitt, who later became White House press secretary, by about 8 points in 2022. Pappas has represented this swing district since 2019.

Election forecasters provide Democrats with a favorable outlook. According to the Cook Political Report, the race is classified as ‘Likely Democrat,’ while Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it as ‘Leans Democratic.’