Current Trends in Trump’s Approval Among Independents

President Donald Trump has experienced a significant decline in his approval ratings among independent voters. Several national polls reveal this downward trend, indicating potential implications for future elections. As independents often play a crucial role in midterms, a continued decline might alter the political landscape ahead of 2026.

Key Polling Insights

• Civiqs Tracking: Shows a 30% approval and 63% disapproval rate among independents, resulting in a net of -33. This is a substantial 38-point shift from a net -5 at the start of Trump’s second term.
• Economist/YouGov Poll: Reveals a -50 net approval among independents from May 29 to June 1, marking a 46-point drop since early 2025.
• PRRI Data: Shows a drop in independent favorability to 25% in May, down from 35% in early 2025.
• AP-NORC Analysis: Highlights a reduction in independent support from approximately 40% during the 2024 election to about 25% by mid-2026.

The Data and Its Implications

These polls collectively point to a robust trend away from Trump among independent voters. Each follows a different methodology but reaches similar conclusions, reinforcing the idea that this is a true shift in public opinion rather than variability in the data.

In-Depth Analysis

Civiqs Tracking

Civiqs maintains a long-term national tracker with over 110,000 responses since Trump’s second inauguration in January 2025. This dataset underlines a consistent decline in approval among independents, moving from 44% approval and 49% disapproval (-5 net) to 30% approval and 63% disapproval (-33 net) by June 2026.

Economist/YouGov

Frequent polling from Economist/YouGov reveals Trump’s standing has worsened considerably among independents. His net approval dropped from -4 in early 2025 to -50 by mid-2026, with historical context provided by YouGov’s Allen Houston, who pointed out the magnitude of this shift.

AP-NORC Analysis

An extensive analysis by AP-NORC, incorporating 21 surveys between July 2024 and April 2026, indicates a broad-based decline in independent support across various demographics. Education level, particularly among those without a college degree, shows sharp declines from previous support levels.

PRRI Findings

Data from the Public Religion Research Institute demonstrates a similar trend, with Trump’s favorability among independents falling 10 points over a year. This survey’s comprehensive national sampling further corroborates the broader findings.

Convergence of Polling Data

Despite different approaches, all cited organizations report consistent declines in approval and favorability among independents. This convergence underscores genuine changes in public sentiment.

Official Response

When asked for comments, the White House pointed to Trump’s 2024 electoral victory as an indicator of ongoing support. Spokesperson Davis Ingle highlighted the president’s focus on job creation, inflation control, and housing affordability as key accomplishments.

Future Implications

The sustainability of these trends will likely hinge on upcoming political and economic shifts. Key issues influencing public perception include inflation and foreign policy, typical barometers for presidential approval. With midterms on the horizon, how independents perceive Trump will be pivotal in determining the outcomes of tightly contested races.