With 100 days remaining until the 2026 midterm elections, recent polling reveals a challenging environment for President Donald Trump. The Civiqs tracking poll, surveying 118,886 registered voters, highlights a divided political landscape. Newsweek’s analysis shows Trump’s approval on July 22, 2026, compared to January 20, 2025, marking his second term’s start. Net approval is calculated as ‘approve’ minus ‘disapprove.’
Nationally, Trump holds a 38 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval, putting him 19 points below positive territory. This pattern extends state by state, with Republican strongholds still showing support but key battleground states depicting a less favorable view.
Key Points
- Trump is below water in all major battleground states 100 days before the 2026 midterm elections.
- States once positive for Trump now have negative net approval.
- The biggest declines occurred where Trump initially saw strong support.
- Younger voters, independents, and postgraduates have the most negative views toward Trump.
Importance of Swing States
Being underwater in crucial swing states indicates even small voter sentiment shifts could decide which party dominates Congress after the November 3 elections. Trump’s approval ratings, as shown on the map, reflect these figures 100 days before the polls open:
- Arizona: -11
- Georgia: -21
- Nevada: -16
- North Carolina: -13
- Pennsylvania: -12
- Wisconsin: -14
- Florida: -9
- Ohio: -8
Significant shifts are seen with Florida from +9 to -9 and Ohio from +8 to -8. These reflect a broader trend of decreasing support in key areas.
Demographic Insights
Trump’s weakest approval is among younger voters. Only 25 percent of those aged 18 to 34 approve of his performance, with 69 percent disapproving. Among ages 35 to 49, approval sits at 31 percent with 61 percent disapproving. Among independents, 32 percent approve versus 60 percent disapprove. Women show a 63-to-32 disapproval margin, while men are closer at 49 percent disapprove and 45 percent approve.
Education presents another division. Among postgraduates, 27 percent approve versus 69 percent disapprove. For non-college graduates, the approval rises to 42 percent against 53 percent disapproval, explaining why Trump performs better in Republican states than competitive or metropolitan areas.
Declines in Approval
Every state registers a lower net approval than January 20, 2025. Significant declines are noted in traditionally strong areas:
- Kentucky: +23 to -1 (down 24 points)
- Wyoming: +47 to +26 (down 21 points)
- Florida: +9 to -9 (down 18 points)
- Idaho: +34 to +14 (down 20 points)
- West Virginia: +35 to +18 (down 17 points)
- Tennessee: +25 to +8 (down 17 points)
- Texas: +6 to -10 (down 16 points)
- Nevada: 0 to -16 (down 16 points)
- Georgia: -4 to -21 (down 17 points)
- Ohio: +8 to -8 (down 16 points)
This suggests significant challenges even in historical Republican strongholds.
Firmly Democratic States
Trump’s least favorable ratings persist in Democratic-leaning states, with Hawaii at -59, Vermont at -54, and Maryland at -49. California is at -41, Massachusetts at -44, Washington at -37, and New York at -35. These figures reflect ongoing opposition with no significant changes since his term began.
Middle States and Overall Map
States like Indiana (+5), Utah (+6), and Kansas (+7) sit near neutral. Nebraska is -1, Louisiana -3, and South Carolina -4. This clustering indicates frequent sentiment shifts could flip states between positive and negative territory.
Despite the familiar map, Trump’s support is now less stable. Previously strong approval margins have narrowed, impacting his standing before the midterms significantly.
White House Position
The White House dismisses polling fluctuations, emphasizing Trump’s 2024 victory as the true measure of support. Spokesman Davis Ingle highlights achievements in jobs, inflation, and housing, stating that Trump’s accomplishments surpass any previous president’s.
Contact Newsweek editor for this story: Edward Pearcey.