President Donald Trump of the United States is experiencing warnings from both opponents and allies that he is becoming cornered in the conflict with Iran. This conflict, initially presented as a brief military foray, has transformed into a standoff.
Nearly a week has passed since U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a provisional agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin new talks on Iran’s nuclear program, requiring Trump’s approval. However, Trump requests unspecified changes to the agreement, and it seems Iranian officials, possibly assuming the Republican president hesitates to resume bombings after exhausting critical weapon systems, are unlikely to comply with new demands.
Recent attacks by Washington and Tehran have raised concerns about the ceasefire’s potential collapse. Trump downplayed the significance on Wednesday, stating to journalists in the Oval Office, “It’s a different part of the world. I would say in that part, a ceasefire is when you shoot in a more moderate way.”
“It’s a part of the world where a ceasefire means something different.” – President Trump
This tense moment continued after Trump reiterated since the 14-day ceasefire agreement was reached on April 7, following 38 days of U.S. and Israeli bombings on Iran, negotiations could conclude swiftly and that the Iranians were eager for settlement. On Wednesday, Trump suggested that something might be finalized “by the weekend.”
Without an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, global energy prices remain high, fueling worldwide anxiety about the rising costs’ effect, driven by the three-month conflict, on food, fuel, and other products.
Following reports this week of Iran stalling talks, Trump told CNBC he was indifferent about the stalled negotiations, even hinting they had become “boring.”
Concerns of Trump Being Cornered
Within the government and among key advisors and allies, concerns rise that Trump is now in a bind, according to a U.S. official and another person familiar with internal discussions, speaking to The Associated Press anonymously due to private conversation protocols.
Trump faces pressure from Democrats exploiting oil prices and hawks among his base, arguing that early withdrawal from the conflict would equate to capitulation. Privately, Trump listens to other Republican lawmakers, Pentagon officials, and Gulf allies advising against resuming military actions, noting that the U.S. has used ammunition too rapidly.
Replacing key weapon systems could take three years. Meanwhile, Gulf allies fear Iranian retaliation against them, their critical infrastructure, and energy interests, further delaying their economies.
Trump expresses irritation at the idea of adopting a deal resembling the 2015 nuclear pact negotiated by Democrat Barack Obama’s administration, restricting Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting international economic sanctions. Trump withdrew from the pact during his first term, arguing it failed to permanently halt Iran’s nuclear program, overlooked Iranian ballistic missile development, and did not penalize Iran for supporting armed groups across the Middle East.
Now, Trump, according to those familiar with internal deliberations, insists he cannot reach a “bad deal” and fully realizes the risk to his legacy if he missteps.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly dismissed notions that Trump is cornered or that the administration is concerned about negotiation pace.
Pressure From Israel to Bomb Lebanon Resisted
Israeli allies and Washington hawks have argued to Trump that a deal at this stage would equate to unconditional surrender, urging increased economic pressure on Iran and supporting Israel’s attack on the political and military group Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Earlier this week, Trump demanded that Israel hold back during a heated call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and on Wednesday, Israel and Lebanon announced an agreement to renew the ceasefire. Hezbollah did not partake in the Israel-Lebanon talks, held at the ambassador level in Washington since early last month, and the armed group denounced the agreement.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the hardline Washington Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argues Iran appears better positioned to exploit the current status quo, neither fully resuming hostilities nor closing an interim agreement to restart nuclear talks.
Despite being the weaker party, Iran seems to calculate that prolonging this waiting period increases their chances to “corner” Trump, he added. “In any case, Tehran appears more determined than ever not to give Trump a victory image; thus, they concede neither on the battlefield nor at the negotiation table,” Taleblu contends.
Midterm Elections Approaching
The stalemate does not benefit Republicans at the polls as Democrats seek to capitalize on Trump’s handling of the unpopular war ahead of the midterm elections in November. The House of Representatives approved a symbolic resolution on Wednesday calling for the cessation of military action against Iran, with four Republicans joining Democrats to admonish Trump’s war.
Trump remarked that the House vote “meant nothing.”
“Democrats are driven by Trump Derangement Syndrome,” Trump declared in a social media post. “The four Republicans, that’s another story: they are OPPORTUNISTS! They should be ashamed.”
During testimony on Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Democrats criticized Trump for downplaying the conflict’s economic impact on Americans and not foreseeing Iran closing the strait.
In a tense exchange, New Jersey Democratic Senator Cory Booker cited the unstable ceasefire as evidence of Iran’s advantage. “We are the strongest nation on planet Earth, and we are at a stalemate with Iran,” Booker stated. “And now we are begging to return to a deal you shredded in the first place.”
Rubio rejected the criticism, emphasizing that Iran has been pushed into a corner by attacks eliminating multiple layers of high-level leadership, leaving Iran’s economy in tatters.
“No one is begging. I don’t know where you get the perception Iran is stronger,” Rubio asserted.
Another Democrat, Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen, focused on Trump’s remarks last month, noting that voter anxiety over the cost of living was “not even a little bit” a motivating factor to reach a deal ending the war.
The president continues to downplay increasing costs for Americans at gas stations and forecasts that gas prices would plummet after the conflict ends.
Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College’s Institute of Public Opinion in Pennsylvania, said Democrats running in contested districts nationwide are already focusing on Trump’s comments on the war’s impact on Americans’ finances.
“There’s a significant risk for Republicans if this drags on,” Borick commented. “It’s undoubtedly going to hurt if Trump finds himself in a position where the war ends and Iran’s nuclear program remains unchanged. But for Republicans in these tough contested districts, it’s arguable that it’s better to rip off the band-aid now, achieve some market relief, and hope enough time passes for voters to move on.”
The Associated Press journalists Farnoush Amiri in New York and Lisa Mascaro contributed to this report.