A tropical storm in the Pacific Ocean is rapidly intensifying into a ‘very dangerous’ hurricane, with potential implications for Southern California’s weather. Forecasters warn that Tropical Storm Polo may escalate to a major hurricane as it nears the coast of southwestern Mexico. This progression could bring substantial rainfall, raising concerns about life-threatening flooding and landslides in Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast.
Meteorologist Bryan Lewis from the National Weather Service in Oxnard indicates that while the forecast is still uncertain, Polo might draw tropical moisture into Southern California. This possibility hinges on atmospheric patterns at higher altitudes. Historical trends show that Pacific storms, like the recent Hurricane Marie, have previously enveloped the region in warm, humid air akin to southern climates.
Polo marks the 16th named storm in the Eastern Pacific this year. Any direct effects from Polo on Southern California would likely occur toward the end of the weekend, at the earliest, as per Lewis’s insights. The most significant potential impact could be increased surf from a south swell, but determining the extent remains challenging due to the unpredictable track of the storm. Lewis notes, “After almost an entire summer of southern swell after southern swell, there could be some issues for those vulnerable coastlines.”
The region has already faced multiple emergencies due to prior tropical storms from the Pacific, which caused high surf and local beach erosion. Communities like Laguna Beach, Dana Point, and Carlsbad have reported coastal erosion and sand loss as a result.
El Niño typically leads to a more active hurricane season in the eastern Pacific and enhances winter rainfall in Southern California. This particular El Niño is anticipated to be the strongest seen in a generation. Governor Gavin Newsom has issued a statewide emergency preparedness alert in anticipation of this winter’s storms, expressing concerns over potential high surf and severe weather conditions.