Texas voters are heading to the polls on Tuesday to decide on the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in the upcoming midterm elections. The race is between the incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has recently received the endorsement of President Donald Trump. Despite having a good relationship with Cornyn, Trump chose to support Paxton, adding a new dynamic to the election. This decision serves as a test of Trump’s influence in midterm races, as Paxton frequently leads Cornyn in recent polls.
Senator vs. Attorney General: Poll Analysis
Polling results show a narrow lead for Paxton in the Republican Senate runoff. Most surveys place him slightly ahead of Cornyn. For instance, a Quantas Insights poll conducted from May 21-23 indicated Paxton at 52.7% and Cornyn at 43.4%, with a margin of error of 3.5%. The University of Houston Hobby School’s poll from April 28-May 1 showed Paxton at 48% and Cornyn at 45%, with 7% undecided and a margin of error of about 2.8%.
A Democratic-sponsored Global Strategy Group poll from May 6-11 indicated Paxton ahead by 12 points, marking him at 52% and Cornyn at 40%, with a margin of error of 4%. The overall polling average from March to May suggested Paxton at an average of 48.8% and Cornyn at 41.0%, reflecting a widening gap favoring Paxton, especially after Trump’s endorsement.
Prediction Markets and Voter Expectations
Prediction markets display a higher probability for Paxton’s victory in the runoff. On Monday, the regulated market Kalshi showed Paxton with a 95% chance of winning compared to a 4.4% chance for Cornyn. Other markets projected a likely victory margin of 10 to 15 points for Paxton. The Polymarket platform gave Paxton a 77% chance of achieving more than a 9% lead over Cornyn, with an overall 96% chance of winning.
Trump’s Involvement and Statements
Trump has openly expressed support for Paxton, calling him a “MAGA Warrior” who consistently delivers results. In a message on Truth Social, Trump criticized Cornyn for being disloyal during Trump’s presidency, emphasizing Paxton’s loyalty and effectiveness. Trump’s endorsement has notably increased Paxton’s standing in the race.
Paxton responded gratefully to Trump’s endorsement on May 19, stating his commitment to Trump’s America First agenda. He emphasized his honor at receiving full support from Trump, reinforcing his campaign’s alignment with the former president’s ideals.
The Democratic Challenge: James Talarico
The winner of the Republican runoff will face off against Democratic State Senator James Talarico in November. Talarico, known for his progressive stance combined with a faith-based platform, is recognized as a strong contender. Despite Texas’s history of voting Republican, Talarico is seen as having potential to flip the seat.
Talarico critiqued both Cornyn and Paxton, labeling them as part of a political system favoring wealthy donors. He emphasized his campaign’s focus on representing ordinary Texans. Political betting markets suggest a competitive general election, with a narrow probability edge for Republicans to retain the seat.
Cornyn expressed confidence in maintaining the seat for the GOP despite acknowledging Talarico’s fundraising success and campaign momentum. He pointed out Paxton’s history of scandals as a potential liability in the general election, where diverse voter participation could threaten the Republican hold on the seat.