In the race for a Texas Senate seat, Democratic hopeful James Talarico is gaining traction compared to his Republican opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton. According to a recent Big Data Poll, Talarico shows greater appeal among 2024 Donald Trump voters than Paxton does among voters who supported Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
Democratic strategists are eyeing opportunities to flip both the Senate and the House during the November midterms. Either outcome would significantly hinder President Trump’s legislative agenda during the last two years of his second term. Securing a Senate seat in Texas—traditionally a Republican stronghold—would mark a major victory for the Democrats, who last achieved such a win in 1988. Contacted outside regular office hours, both Talarico and Paxton’s campaigns were reached for comments by Newsweek.
Polling Data
Big Data Poll
The Big Data Poll surveyed 698 likely Texas voters from September 24 to September 26. The survey indicated that Talarico, currently serving as a Texas State Representative, leads Paxton with 44.6% of the vote compared to Paxton’s 41.6%. This reflects sentiments from voters who firmly support one candidate over the other.
Interestingly, the poll shows Talarico has the endorsement of 15% of voters who supported Trump in 2024, whereas Paxton garnered backing from only 4.3% of Harris voters. Talarico is supported by 89.3% of Harris voters, whereas 72.2% of Trump voters favor Paxton. The poll’s margin of error is ±4 percentage points.
In the 2024 election, Trump won Texas with 56.2% of the vote against Harris’s 42.5%, a margin of 13.7 percentage points.
SoCal Strategies Survey
Confirming Big Data Poll’s findings, a SoCal Strategies survey of 649 Texas voters was conducted between September 12 and September 13. Talarico receives support from 95% of Harris voters and 14% of Trump voters. Meanwhile, Paxton is backed by 84% of Trump voters and only 4% of Harris voters.
Notably, Governor Greg Abbott, also a Republican, performs better among 2024 Harris voters compared to Paxton. Abbott is supported by 89% of Trump voters and 13% of Harris voters, while his Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa, is backed by 87% of Harris voters and 9% of Trump voters. The SoCal Strategies poll reports Talarico leads Paxton by five percentage points, with 50% of the vote to Paxton’s 45%. Conversely, Abbott holds a lead over Hinojosa by 52% to 44%.
Other Polling
A Texas Public Opinion Research survey published on Friday revealed Talarico ahead of Paxton by five percentage points, with 49% to Paxton’s 44%. Conducted between September 19 and 22, this survey involved 1,007 likely voters and carries a 3.6% margin of error.
A Texas Southern University poll of 1,200 voters, conducted from July 27 to 30, indicates Talarico holds a narrower lead of 47% to Paxton’s 45%.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi show improved odds for Talarico over recent months. Polymarket estimates Talarico has a 61% chance of winning, contrasted with Paxton’s 40%. Kalshi reflects similar sentiments, with Talarico favored by 59% over Paxton’s 41%. Previously, Paxton had been leading; on July 28, Polymarket put Paxton ahead with 56% likelihood to Talarico’s 44%.
Candidate Controversies
Paxton, endorsed by Trump, has faced controversy among Republicans within Texas. His strained relations could explain his polling numbers, which lag behind Governor Abbott’s. Paxton defeated Senator John Cornyn in a heated primary runoff despite being labeled a “known con man and fraud” by Cornyn. Cornyn has refused to campaign for Paxton in the general election.
In 2023, the Texas House, GOP-controlled, impeached Paxton after allegations concerning abuse of public trust and unfitness for office. Paxton denied these charges and was acquitted in the state Senate trial.
Talarico too has been involved in controversies, primarily stemming from comments made about Christianity. During a 2021 Texas House speech, he remarked “God is nonbinary,” and elaborated further during an appearance on the Active Theology podcast, saying he views himself as a “Christian who hates Christianity.” Paxton’s campaign circulated an AI-generated video emphasizing the latter statement.
Last week, Talarico challenged Paxton to a televised debate on Fox News at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin. Paxton’s senior advisor, Nick Maddux, stated plans to debate Talarico, though no date has been set.