A recent Fox News survey reveals that many Texan voters are worried about Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton’s close relationship with Donald Trump. On Thursday, President Trump showed his support for Paxton at a rally at the Peterbilt Motors plant in Denton, joined by Dennis Rodman, a retired basketball star. Despite this support, the poll suggests that Paxton’s alliance with Trump may benefit his Democratic opponent, James Talarico.
The Democrats aim to gain control of the Senate in November. Achieving a Texas Senate seat, last won in 1988, would significantly impede Trump’s ability to pass legislation during the final two years of his term. Newsweek reached out to the Paxton and Talarico campaigns for comment.
Fox News Poll Highlights
The Fox News poll, conducted from September 24 to 28 with a 2.5-point margin of error, surveyed 1,203 Texas registered voters, including 881 likely voters. Results show Talarico leading by two points with 51% of the vote compared to Paxton’s 49%, although within the margin of error.
Talarico has garnered stronger support from self-identified Democrats than Paxton has from Republicans. Of those surveyed, 99% of Democrats back Talarico, whereas Paxton only has the support of 90% of Republicans, with 10% favoring Talarico. Paxton faces difficulties with non-MAGA Republicans, 22% of whom support Talarico. However, he has the backing of 96% of MAGA Republicans, with only 4% choosing Talarico.
The survey indicates that 37% of voters are extremely concerned and 14% are very concerned about Paxton’s relationship with Trump. Contrastingly, 29% are not concerned at all, and 20% are not very concerned.
Among non-MAGA Republicans, 39% express concern over Paxton’s Trump ties, while only 10% of MAGA Republicans share this concern. Furthermore, 63% of Texan voters consider Trump to be extremely or very important for their Senate vote, compared to 36% who do not.
Trump’s Support and Campaign Challenges
During his speech in Denton, Trump praised Paxton’s loyalty, stating Paxton was frequently at his side. Referring to Talarico, Trump criticized him as unsuitable for Texas and the country, asserting the need for votes.
Leaked audio reported by the New York Times reveals Paxton’s private concerns about his campaign being negatively impacted by Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas. Paxton allegedly said the event caused their numbers to drop. Nick Maddux, a senior Paxton advisor, dismissed the audio as manipulated nonsense.
Candidate Policy Differences
Paxton, who defeated John Cornyn in a GOP runoff with Trump’s support, faces challenges from his impeachment by the Texas House over abuse and unfitness allegations, though he was found not guilty by the state Senate. Talarico, however, has faced criticism for controversial religious remarks.
In terms of policy, Talarico supports an ‘AI Dividend’ for Americans from artificial intelligence profits, while Paxton advocates for restrictions on Chinese technology and greater AI accountability. Talarico also promotes marijuana legalization, labeling Texas’ restrictions a boon to drug cartels, while Paxton opposes local government decriminalization efforts.
Polling Trends
Recent polling indicates a narrow lead for Talarico over Paxton, though often within the margin of error. A Rasmussen Reports survey placed Talarico at 46%, just one point ahead of Paxton. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll gave Talarico a 5-point lead over Paxton.
On October 2, prediction platform Polymarket gave Talarico a 62% chance of winning the seat compared to Paxton’s 39%.