James Talarico is currently showing stronger polling results in his Senate race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton than Beto O’Rourke showed at a similar point in his 2018 campaign against Senator Ted Cruz. In a political landscape where Democrats have consistently aimed to secure victories in Texas yet faced repeated defeats, 2026 presents a unique opportunity. Recent ratings have classified the Senate race as a toss-up. A victory for Talarico would mark the first Democratic Senate win in Texas in nearly four decades. Cruz has remarked on the potential national implications, suggesting that a Democratic win in Texas could ensure long-term political dominance.
James Talarico’s Chances of Beating Ken Paxton
A recent poll from SoCal Strategies indicates that Talarico is currently leading with 50% of the vote, compared to Paxton’s 45%. This marks a significant shift since June, where Paxton was leading in the same poll. Talarico’s support has grown considerably among Hispanic voters, widening from a 10-point gap in June to a 38-point advantage currently. Among independent voters, Talarico’s lead has expanded from 10 points to 45 points. Notably, 12% of Republicans have indicated support for Talarico.
“Much like the last poll, Republicans are less decided than Democrats. While six percent of respondents who supported Trump in 2024 are undecided in the Senate race, only one percent of those who voted for Vice President Kamala Harris share this indecision,” the poll report stated.
To remain competitive, Paxton must attract undecided voters and reclaim a notable portion of the 12% of Republicans currently preferring Talarico.
Talarico’s prospects have improved on prediction markets as well. Polymarket currently assigns Talarico a 53% chance of winning, a notable change from Paxton’s favored position in July, with 56%. Similarly, Kalshi estimates Talarico’s chances at 52%, reflecting a recent upward shift in odds.
Beto O’Rourke’s Chances Against Ted Cruz in 2018
In the 2018 campaign, polls showed Ted Cruz maintaining a slight lead over Beto O’Rourke by approximately 3 points, as per a Real Clear Politics poll average. Ultimately, Cruz won the election by 2 points. At that time, Cruz acknowledged O’Rourke’s formidable campaign efforts, recognizing the closeness of the race. Currently, Cruz has expressed concern over the possibility of a Democratic victory in Texas.
On a podcast, Cruz mentioned, “Republicans could lose Texas,” emphasizing the competitive nature of the 2026 race. In a conversation with Texas Governor Greg Abbott, Cruz noted, “I think this is going to be close. I think we’re going to win; I think we’re going to keep Texas red, but the polling right now shows this is a 1- or 2-point race.” Cruz highlighted Texas as one of several highly contested Senate races and shared his apprehensions about a challenging election cycle for Republicans.