Overview of the Intensifying El Niño
Federal forecasters are predicting a significant strengthening of El Niño in the coming months. This climate pattern could substantially affect weather across the United States during the winter. By the end of 2026, there is a greater than 90 percent chance of it becoming a very strong event, particularly during fall and winter.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño represents the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern in the Pacific. It can influence weather globally. La Niña, its counterpart, signifies the cool phase.
Typical El Niño effects include stormier conditions in the Southern U.S., drier weather in some northern regions, and altered hurricane activity.
Current Predictions from NOAA
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has heightened the likelihood of El Niño reaching historic strength between October and December 2026. Chances of this happening have increased to 75 percent, compared to 69 percent in August.
The possibility of typical El Niño impacts rises with a strong event, but they are not certain. The term “Super El Niño”, while popular, is not an official NOAA classification.
Potential Weather Changes This Winter
According to AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok, December might bring heavy rainfall to central and Northern California and potentially the Northeast. The Sierras could experience snow.
Another storm track could affect areas from the Gulf Coast to the mid-Atlantic. The Southeast and Tennessee Valley might face heavier rain, while severe thunderstorms are possible in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. Mild conditions are anticipated in the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Northeast compared to typical averages.
In January and February, strong storm tracks are expected along the West Coast, notably over California and Nevada. The Four Corners region may also see activity.
Less snow is projected for the Northwest and most of the northern parts of the nation, with fewer cold air masses. The Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast may remain wet and stormy at times. However, Paul Pastelok notes that other factors could modify this strong El Niño’s pattern and further research is ongoing.
CPC Winter Outlooks
Maps from last month’s CPC announcement indicate temperature and precipitation predictions for December 2026 to February 2027. For temperatures, above-normal conditions are expected across large parts of the U.S., including the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Warmest signals appear along parts of the northern tier.
Above-normal temperatures are also likely across much of the Southern U.S. Predictions for parts of California and the Southwest are less conclusive.
For precipitation, wetter-than-normal conditions are anticipated from Southern California through the Southwest, southern Plains, and Gulf Coast, including Florida and parts of the East Coast.
For further information, contact Newsweek editors Ben Kelly and Sam Wilson.