A SpaceX rocket piece is on a trajectory to impact the moon after being adrift for more than a year. This event is expected to occur on Wednesday, with the rocket’s upper stage creating a crater and a dust plume that will interest scientists and observers. Space tracking expert Bill Gray forecasts an impact at 5,400 mph (8,700 kph) near the moon’s sunlit western edge, close to the Einstein Crater. The eastern parts of the U.S., Canada, and much of South America might have the best views in the early hours.
This accident underscores the growing concern over space debris. “Things are getting crowded,” Gray commented, who will observe from New Brunswick, Canada. The unintentional crash happened as SpaceX initially had no plans to hit the moon. Experts suggest that diverting the rocket into orbit around the sun could have prevented it. This marks the second known incident of a rocket crashing into the moon, the first being a Chinese rocket in 2022.
Despite being dim, the crash’s flash will manifest briefly. Its debris stream, extending several miles, can be seen through telescopes for minutes. “There is low gravity on the moon, and no wind to disperse the dust,” noted Benjamin Fernando from Los Alamos National Laboratory. Scientists like Fernando want to understand the risk space debris poses to future lunar missions.
The impact might create a crater about 90 feet wide and 16 feet deep (27 meters by 5 meters), visible to spacecraft but not from Earth. NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter will document the site from space. Danuri will pass within a mile of the rocket two minutes before impact.
This 40-foot rocket section, weighing roughly 10,000 pounds, launched two lunar landers on January 15, 2025. One lander, Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost, successfully landed on the moon, while Japan-based ispace’s lander crashed. Observing human-made impacts may offer insights that natural meteoroid strikes don’t. During the Apollo missions, NASA also crashed equipment into the moon for research.
As the race to land astronauts on the moon progresses, scientists stress the importance of monitoring debris and managing lunar traffic. The U.S. and China aim to establish a human presence on the moon soon. Companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin are competing to develop lunar landers for NASA’s Artemis IV mission.
Retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell noted, “This impact won’t pose a problem now, but future similar impacts could threaten long-term lunar bases.” Reducing the chaos of rocket orbits around the moon is essential for safe lunar habitation.
The Associated Press Health and Science Department received funding from Howard Hughes Medical Institute and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, but is solely responsible for the article’s content.