A Republican political action committee has invested $131 million over 17 days to support Ken Paxton’s bid for the Texas Senate, averaging approximately $7.7 million per day. These figures are based on official filings reviewed by Newsweek.

This significant monetary intervention comes as Paxton trails behind the Democratic candidate, James Talarico, in multiple polls ahead of the November 3 midterm election. Talarico, a former Presbyterian seminarian and middle school teacher, aims to become the first Democrat in decades to secure a Texas Senate seat. A win for Talarico would represent a substantial gain for his party as they strive to take control of the Senate.

Why It Matters

Texas has historically been crucial to maintaining a Republican Senate majority. However, Paxton’s vulnerability has prompted outside groups to pour enormous sums into the race. The scale of this financial commitment underscores the urgency with which the Republican Party is approaching this contest, given the risk to both their control of the seat and their broader Senate majority.

What To Know

Currently, Polymarket traders assign a 63 percent probability of victory to Talarico, compared to a 38 percent chance for Paxton. Over $1.6 million has been traded on this market. On Kalshi, traders similarly estimate Talarico’s chances of defeating Paxton at 62 percent, while they give Paxton a 42 percent probability of winning.

These figures reflect traders’ expectations and can shift rapidly due to changes in polling data, campaign developments, and individual transactions. They should not be interpreted as an authoritative election forecast.

This is an ongoing story, and further updates will be provided as they become available.

Note: Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to assist with the production of this story.