The Athletic recently published Mike Sando’s annual survey, “Quarterback Tiers,” assessing NFL quarterbacks through the perspectives of coaches, executives, and insiders. For more than a decade, this survey has provided an essential view of quarterback performance. This year, for the first time, readers were invited to participate, assigning quarterbacks to tiers, ranging from Tier 1 (elite) to Tier 5 (not an NFL starter).
With over 45,000 readers casting more than 500,000 votes, similarities emerged between reader and expert rankings. However, the data unveiled a notable trend: home-team bias. Although The Athletic does not know readers’ team allegiances, data on the teams they follow in the app hints at favoritism. On average, followers of a team rated their quarterback higher than other readers.
For instance, readers generally saw quarterbacks like Drake Maye or Lamar Jackson as Tier 2. However, Patriots and Ravens followers were more inclined to place them in Tier 1. This bias caused a typical shift of about half a tier in rankings, as seen with Lamar Jackson, who ranked 1.6 according to experts, compared to Jared Goff’s 2.1.
Specific quarterbacks saw substantial ‘home-team bumps.’ Tyler Shough’s followers gave him a significant boost, rating him much higher than external evaluations. Conversely, Deshaun Watson lacked fan support, being rated as a Tier 5 quarterback by both readers and team followers — a tier reserved for those perceived as unfit NFL starters.
Home-team bias affects quarterback ratings
The top-ranked quarterbacks by readers were Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford. Their ratings did not differ much between fans and opponents, suggesting a consensus on their elite status.
Comparing readers and experts reveals further insights. While their rankings align closely, readers often rated quarterbacks 0.3 tiers lower on average than experts. For instance, reader votes for Tier 5 vastly exceeded that of experts, with noticeably lower tier assignments for most quarterbacks. This discrepancy points to differing levels of seriousness in evaluations.
Notable gaps appeared for quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, and Tua Tagovailoa, where readers felt these individuals were overrated. Watson’s allegations of misconduct and sporadic playing contributed to a significant 1.0 tier difference between readers and experts. Meanwhile, readers placed Rodgers and Tagovailoa in Tier 4, whereas experts considered them Tier 3 players. These disparities highlight where public sentiment diverges from professional evaluation.
Additional analysis provided by Ben Warren.