Latino men who played a significant role in supporting President Donald Trump’s return to the White House in the 2024 election are showing signs of shifting away from him as the midterm elections approach. A recent NBC News/Telemundo poll reveals this trend. Historically, Hispanic and Latino voters have leaned towards Democrats. Trump, however, made notable gains with these voters in the last election, which was pivotal in states like Arizona and Nevada. Democrats are now attempting to regain their support, and the outcome of this shift will influence the midterms.
What the Poll Shows
Trump’s approval rating among Latino men stands at 33%, with 64% disapproving of his performance. The poll shows Democrats holding a 24-point advantage among Latino voters for the generic congressional ballot—59% prefer Democratic control of Congress, while 35% lean towards Republicans.
Latino women continue to favor Democrats more than Latino men. Among Latino women, Democrats lead by 31 points, with 62% favoring Democrats and 31% supporting Republicans. Among Latino men, Democrats have a narrower lead of 16 points, 53% to 39%.
Overall, dissatisfaction is increasing among the Latino electorate. Trump has a 27% approval rating with Latino voters, and 69% disapprove of his performance. Additionally, 74% disapprove of his economic policies, 78% criticize his handling of living costs, and 69% disapprove of his approach to immigration.
Economic concerns are critical in this shift. Nearly 65% of Latino voters believe Trump’s policies have hurt economic conditions, and 63% say their household income is falling behind the cost of living. The poll suggests Latino voters now give Democrats a 21-point advantage on handling the economy, a reversal from 2024.
On immigration, 67% think Trump’s enforcement measures are excessive, while 22% think they are appropriate. The current 24-point Democratic advantage among Latino voters is double what it was in 2024, despite Republicans retaining some gains from the Trump era. The poll surveyed 800 registered Latino voters, with a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points.
Previous Polling Results
Harry Enten, a CNN data analyst, noted Trump’s declining approval among Hispanic voters. He highlighted CNN and SSRS data showing a -41 point approval rating among Hispanic men, despite previously winning this group by 10 points less than two years ago.
Enten attributes this shift largely to economic dissatisfaction. His analysis finds Trump’s approval on economic issues among Hispanic men at -49 points. This decline, he suggests, could heavily influence upcoming midterm elections. Various polls reflect these trends, though specific crosstab data for Hispanic men is often limited.
The Civiqs poll, surveying over 123,000 Americans, shows 59% of Hispanic and Latino men disapprove of Trump, while 36% approve. Similarly, a UnidosUS poll reports Trump’s approval at 34% among Latino men, with 64% disapproving.
What Is Behind the Shift?
Economic issues drive the decline in Trump’s approval among Hispanic and Latino voters. According to Matt A. Barreto from UCLA, Trump promised economic improvements in 2024 but has failed to deliver on these promises. Latino voters, especially men, view the election with a focus on affordability.
Democrats could regain Latino support but need to actively demonstrate their commitment to reducing costs for the middle class. Barreto suggests that given Trump’s weak Latino numbers, Democrats should increase outreach efforts.
Charles Venator-Santiago from the University of Connecticut adds that Trump’s appeal to Latino men in 2024 was based on addressing specific economic issues and portraying a strong male leadership image. However, his immigration policies are now a significant deterrent.
Policies by ICE, seen as profiling Latinos and crossing lines even for conservatives, contribute to dissatisfaction. The NBC News/Telemundo poll identifies inflation and living costs as top concerns, with two-thirds of those surveyed feeling Trump’s immigration stance is excessively harsh.
What the White House Has Said
A White House representative stated previously that the 2024 election results, where nearly 80 million voted for Trump, signified the public’s support for his agenda. The administration maintains that Trump is committed to job creation, controlling inflation, and improving affordability.
What Happens Next
Both Republicans and Democrats aim to win over Latino voters before the 2026 midterms. Republican pollster Micah Roberts called Latino voters “the swingiest of swing groups,” highlighting the visible shift since 2024.
Democrats encounter their own challenges as well. Despite many Latinos moving away from Trump, views of the Democratic Party have not improved significantly. The poll indicates 42% of Latino voters have a negative view of the party, a slight increase from 2024.
With 72% of Latino voters expressing strong interest in the upcoming election and 54% planning to vote against Trump, both parties see Latino voters, particularly men, as crucial for this year’s campaign.