New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District election is seeing unexpected shifts in favor. Republican Representative Tom Kean Jr.’s prolonged medical leave has put the race in a tight spot. Previously, Kean held a slight lead, but recent developments indicate the contest is now highly competitive.
Kean’s Absence and Its Impact
Kean’s absence from Congress began after his last public appearance on March 5. Since then, he has missed over 100 votes. In April, Kean disclosed on social media that he was dealing with a personal medical issue. Despite this, he is running unopposed for the Republican nomination. In contrast, Democrats have multiple candidates aiming to capture this seat.
“I want to thank my constituents and colleagues for their patience as I address a personal medical issue. My doctors continue to assure me that my recovery will be complete,” Kean stated on April 27.
Polls and Predictions
Prediction markets reflect the uncertainty engulfing the race. As per Polymarket, the Democratic Party now has a 75 percent chance of winning. A separate platform, Kalshi, estimates Democratic chances at 78 percent. These numbers contrast sharply with pre-March 5 figures, where Kean and the Republicans possessed nearly equal odds.
An internal poll commissioned by the 314 Action Fund suggests that Tina Shah, an ICU doctor and Democratic candidate, could narrowly defeat Kean. After being informed of both candidates’ credentials, respondents favored Shah 49 percent to 43 percent.
The Democratic Challenge
The Democratic primary has attracted four candidates: former SBA official Michael Roth, former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett, businessman Brian Varela, and ICU doctor Tina Shah. With the primary scheduled for Tuesday, the Democrats hope to leverage Kean’s medical absence as a pivotal issue for voters.
Kean’s Political Landscape
New Jersey’s 7th District has alternated between parties over recent election cycles. It took a Republican turn when Kean defeated incumbent Democrat Tom Malinowski in 2022. However, the district’s boundaries were altered to favor Republicans after the 2021 census. The upcoming general election is slated for November 3, 2026, following the June 2 primary.