John F. Kennedy once described the United States as “a nation of immigrants,” a statement reflective of the countless individuals from abroad who have made the country their home over its 250-year history. However, immigration has recently evolved into a contentious topic, marked by significant migrant arrivals during the Biden administration, which have generated political concern and public pushback similar to what occurred during Donald Trump’s era of mass deportations.

Approaching the 2024 presidential election, illegal immigration was perceived as a “very big problem” by 51 percent of voters, with opinions sharply divided along party lines. A Pew Research Center survey highlighted that 78 percent of Republicans and 27 percent of Democrats view illegal immigration as a critical issue.

Trump made pledges to combat what he termed an “invasion” of illegal migrants, promising the largest mass deportation in U.S. history. After Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, his administration reported that nearly 3 million “illegal aliens” left the country within 12 months. This included around 2.2 million “self-deportations” and over 675,000 formal deportations.

Immigration Drop Under Trump’s Administration

The Trump administration’s aggressive policies on illegal immigration, along with perceived hostility toward migrants, has resulted in a dramatic slowdown in immigration to the U.S. Brookings Institution, a public policy group, noted that last year saw the first negative net immigration in over a decade. Expectations are similar for the year 2026.

In 2025, net immigration was estimated between -295,000 and -10,000. Looking ahead to 2026, estimates suggest figures between -925,000 and +185,000. This data, corroborated by Census information from January, indicated net international migration peaked at 2.7 million in 2024, dropping to 1.3 million in 2025. This downward trend is anticipated to continue, potentially declining to 321,000 in 2026.

The decline in immigration impacts population growth. Census data show that between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, population growth slowed to a mere 0.5 percent, marking a post-COVID-19 pandemic low. Christine Hartley of the Census Bureau stated that the sharp reduction in net international migration was the primary cause for the slower growth rate.

Potential Population Decline

Immigration has historically shaped the U.S., and its significant reduction might equally influence the country’s future. Demographer William H. Frey from Brookings Metro has warned that maintaining immigration levels is crucial to prevent rapid aging of the workforce and a potential population decline.

Conversely, Steven Camarota from the Center for Immigration Studies advocates for reduced immigration rates, arguing against Frey’s viewpoint. Both experts have conducted studies evaluating the possible outcomes based on varying immigration levels.

Scenarios by Frey and Camarota

Frey’s research considers zero, low, and high immigration scenarios using U.S. population projections from 2022 to 2051. Camarota dismisses zero immigration as impossible, proposing low, medium, and high scenarios instead, referencing Census Bureau projections for 2023.

Zero/Low Immigration

Under zero immigration, Frey forecasts the U.S. population will diminish to 312 million by 2051. Low immigration—akin to Trump’s first term figures—might modestly increase it to 345 million by 2051. Camarota aligns with this projection, noting the population may grow by 18.4 million to 343 million between 2023 and 2060 under low immigration.

Frey notes zero immigration previously occurred in the 1950s, but the impact would be greater now due to deaths potentially surpassing births from 2031 onward.

Medium Immigration

Camarota’s medium immigration scenario predicts growth by 34.6 million to 364 million from 2023 to 2060. Although the working-age demographic will drop, the decline will be less pronounced than under low immigration.

High Immigration

Frey’s scenario of high immigration forecasts the U.S. population reaching 385 million, preserving historical growth trends from the early 2000s. This scenario enhances younger demographics, adding 17 million children under 15 and 50 million individuals aged 15 to 64 by 2051. Camarota estimates even greater growth of 59 million, resulting in a population of 397 million by 2060. However, Camarota asserts high immigration won’t substantially increase young, working-age individuals.

The percentage of the people in the working age range would constitute 58.5 percent by 2060, a minor improvement over other scenarios.

Impact of Immigration on Demographics

The role of immigrants in keeping the U.S. youthful remains debated. Frey highlights that immigrants, often in their 20s and early 30s, contribute to a younger age composition, boosting the labor force. The lack of younger citizens could reduce workforce contributions to Medicare and Social Security, exacerbating the support needed for an aging population.

Camarota emphasizes that immigration merely prevents population shrinkage, not necessarily keeping the populace youthful due to similar age distribution trends and fertility reductions among immigrants.

Data from CIS underline that immigrant households have higher welfare participation rates than U.S.-born households. This is attributed to lower incomes among working-class immigrant families.

Diverse Ethnic Composition

Both experts concur that immigration levels will affect ethnic diversity in the U.S. Camarota states immigration predominantly brings Hispanic and Asian individuals, contrasting the mostly European ancestry of the current populace.

Frey’s zero immigration scenario predicts the foreign-born population shrinking significantly, but also reflects substantial declines among the white population, while Latino or Hispanic numbers may rise regardless of immigration levels.

Political Landscape and Public Sentiment

Voter perspectives heavily influence immigration policy, including upcoming elections. Camarota notes dissatisfaction with immigration levels played a role in Trump’s election.

Public opinion data show mixed sentiments. Pew Research highlighted that 52 percent of adults felt Trump was overzealous in deporting illegal immigrants. Yet, immigration remains a crucial voter issue despite shifting political opinions.

Surveys indicate a general American belief that immigration positively impacts the nation’s culture, economy, and communities.

Contact Newsweek editors on this report: John Fitzpatrick and James Debens