A map indicating the historical odds of snow on December 25 highlights the potential impact of an El Niño winter, dividing U.S. states into those likely and unlikely to experience a white Christmas. The National Weather Service (NWS) describes a white Christmas as having at least one inch of snow cover on Christmas morning.

Data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) pinpoints higher chances of snow in northern states, mountainous areas, and Alaska, where snow is often present before the holiday. Much of the U.S. does not guarantee a white Christmas. In particular, the South, Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast see decreased probabilities due to typically warmer temperatures in late December.

This year, the possibility of a strong El Niño—a climate pattern with warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific—is under observation. El Niño can disrupt jet stream patterns, affecting temperature and precipitation across North America during winter.

“In a traditional El Niño pattern, the regions favorable for a white Christmas are the higher elevations of western states,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Peyton Simmers.

During traditional El Niño events, December is usually warmer than average, reducing the chance of a white Christmas in the eastern U.S.

Understanding Super El Niño

A super El Niño represents a particularly intense version of the climate pattern, occurring when sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific rise significantly above normal. Such strong events can shift the jet stream, affecting winter weather conditions across the U.S. The NWS Climate Prediction Center has forecasted a greater than 90% likelihood of a very strong El Niño developing in fall and winter of 2026-27. There is a 69% probability that this event will exceed the recorded intensity of previous El Niño events stretching back to 1950.

The NWS refers to these events as “very strong,” rather than using the term “super El Niño.” In the U.S., El Niño impacts are most visible from late fall through winter, primarily between December and February.

El Niño’s Influence on Snowfall

While predictions of strong El Niño development are underway, the National Weather Service has not yet provided a detailed winter outlook. Historically, stronger El Niño events can lead to stormier southern U.S. whereas northern regions might experience higher temperatures.

This shift could lower white Christmas odds in states that typically boast high chances. However, certain areas maintain high probabilities due to existing cold conditions and snowpack. Alaska remains the most consistent destination for a white Christmas. High-elevation areas in states like California, Colorado, Utah, and others also hold strong prospects.

Northern states like Minnesota and North Dakota may encounter reduced odds due to El Niño influences. Eastern states like Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire could similarly face lower expectations. The Great Lakes area, known for lake-effect snow, may see complicated conditions due to warmer El Niño temperatures.

Southern states generally have much lower chances. Rare snowstorms might occasionally cover places like Texas, Louisiana, and Georgia, but predictability months in advance is limited.

Looking Ahead

Long-term regional climatology plays a crucial role. States accumulating deep snowpack through December are most likely to enjoy snowy Christmas scenes, even under El Niño’s effects.

As winter nears, forecasters will better understand atmospheric patterns. Until then, those desiring snow-covered holidays are advised to look northward, where historical data supports stronger odds.