California Governor Gavin Newsom revealed an investigation by the Justice Department, claiming it as political retaliation. He suggests it targets him due to his consideration of a presidential run. Newsom announced this development on X, mentioning that federal agents sought documents from family, friends, and former employees.
Newsom argues the inquiry exemplifies power misuse, stating agents seek records not based on found crimes, but to discover one. He maintains he has nothing to hide.
This situation echoes former President Donald Trump’s strategy. Facing four criminal indictments, Trump used them as a fundraising and rallying tool, portraying himself as a victim.
“He isn’t coming after me because of mean tweets, but because I am considering running for President,” Newsom wrote.
Newsom is applying a similar approach. He labeled Trump “the most corrupt President in American history.” Democratic strategist Jim Kessler acknowledged Newsom might benefit from the investigation in media and fundraising, describing it as a boost in exposure among Democratic voters.
Similarly, strategist Eddie Vale believes the probe can reshape the 2028 race landscape, comparing it with Trump’s past impact on Senator Mark Kelly.
Newsom’s Position in 2028 Speculation
Newsom is a significant contender in an emerging Democratic field. Known for confronting Trump, he commands attention in prediction markets. On Polymarket, he holds around a 24-25% probability of securing the 2028 Democratic nomination, surpassing figures like Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. For the presidency, he maintains about a 16% chance.
Dan Schnur, a political science lecturer, notes Newsom’s strong anti-Trump stance propels him in pre-primary dynamics.
However, traditional polls tell a different story. A Noble Predictive Insights survey from early June placed Harris at 27% support among Democrats, while Newsom was at 14%. Other polls indicate a decline in Newsom’s popularity.
The Investigation’s Focus
The probe’s specifics are unclear. Newsom’s office claims it’s fueled by conspiracy theories. No subpoenas have reached Newsom or his spouse, and no explicit charges exist. Reports from CNN suggest the investigation, ongoing for about a year, focuses on financial aspects linked to the couple and their nonprofits.
The scrutiny targets the California Partners Project, established by Siebel Newsom. The organization, benefiting from over $5 million in “behested payments,” faces criticism from ethics groups like California Common Cause, who argue it can facilitate undue influence. Some Republican figures describe these payments as overt corruption.
Newsom’s Potential Candidacy
Newsom has not definitively stated intentions to run for president. He consistently postpones decision announcements until post-midterms in November. He hinted at considering a run, stating it’s a conceivable path. His term as governor concludes in January, with term limits preventing another term.
Newsom views the DOJ inquiry more as a platform for political advancement than a legal challenge. The reaction of voters and donors remains uncertain until the dust of midterms settles.
The Justice Department has not commented, and the White House has deferred inquiries back to the department.