Republican Congressman Byron Donalds is behind Democratic candidate David Jolly in the Florida governor race, according to a poll by Change Research, a Democratic-leaning firm. The findings could be hopeful for Florida Democrats, who have faced challenges winning statewide elections since 2018, as Republicans gained dominance.
Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, is barred from reelection in 2026. He won a second term by nearly 20 points in 2022, while Republicans increased their voter registration lead and kept control of statewide offices. Despite this, some polls hint that the race to replace DeSantis might be more competitive than expected.
Former President Donald Trump recently reaffirmed his support for Donalds, stating, “I know Byron well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a TOTAL WINNER!” He added, “Byron Donalds will be a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement. HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!” Trump won Florida by 13 points in 2024 against Kamala Harris, and a Democrat has not held the governorship in over 20 years.
I hear Change Research also sells tremendous ocean front property in Arizona.— Gates McGavick, Communications Director for Donalds’ campaign
The campaign also pointed to a statement by Ryan Smith, affiliated with the campaign, who mentioned, “This is a push poll by Democrats for Democrats. The truth is, Florida Democrats will be crying in their kombucha on November 3 when @ByronDonalds is elected governor.”
Poll Insights
The Change Research poll shows former Republican congressman Jolly, now a Democrat, leading Donalds. Jolly’s campaign focuses on affordability issues like insurance, housing, and healthcare. Donalds presents himself as a conservative successor aiming to advance Trump’s agenda and tackle illegal immigration. Jolly leads Donalds 47% to 42%, with a slightly bigger gap among likely voters, at 49% to 43%.
The survey involved 1,273 registered voters, with 1,015 likely to vote in the 2026 midterm elections. It has a 2.8% margin of error. Jolly has 94% support among Democrats, while Donalds receives 77% from Republicans.
Other Polls
Another Change Research poll shows Jolly ahead at 46% to Donalds’ 42%. Conducted from May 13-16, this survey included 2,070 registered voters, with 1,593 likely to vote. It has a 2.3% margin of error.
An Emerson College Polling survey from late March had Donalds at 44% and Jolly at 39%, with 17% undecided. This poll, conducted March 29-31 among 1,125 likely voters, has a 2.8% margin of error.