The Atlantic hurricane season of 2026 is experiencing unprecedented calm due to a powerful El Niño effect. So far, no hurricanes have formed and none are expected for at least another week. Normally, this period marks the peak of the season, which lasts from June to November, but only five weak and brief tropical storms have occurred.
El Niño’s Impact
On Saturday, a record was set for the longest period a season has begun without a storm reaching hurricane-level winds of 64 mph, said Nick Novella from the Weather Prediction Center. Prior to the 1950s, records indicated similar patterns, but those are considered unreliable due to incomplete ocean monitoring.
According to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert from Colorado State University, overall hurricane activity is at a post-1950 record low, with only 7% of the usual storm activity. Despite forecasts from Colorado State University predicting nine named storms, people are warned not to become complacent. A single storm can still be catastrophic, as evidenced by Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
Factors Hindering Storm Formation
Kristen Corbosiero, an atmospheric science professor, attributes the current conditions to a “triple whammy” effect: winds that disrupt storms, dry air, and downward-pushing winds. These factors, all results of El Niño, prevent tropical cyclones from forming.
El Niño’s influence brings record-strong wind shear to the Atlantic. Corbosiero explains that this involves strong easterly winds hitting a storm system at lower levels and strong westerly winds at upper altitudes, leading to the storm’s disintegration.
Brian McNoldy, a hurricane expert at the University of Miami, notes that conditions are especially unfavorable for storm formation in the area between Africa and the Caribbean, while the Gulf of Mexico may see activity later in the season.
Although ocean waters remain warm, which typically aids storm formation, the slower warming compared to the atmosphere under El Niño limits storm activity.
Looking Ahead
The effects of El Niño on the Atlantic are expected to wane as the pattern normalizes. Kerry Emanuel from MIT predicts an increased chance of storm activity next season as warm waters persist.
Conversely, the Pacific is experiencing heightened storm activity with nearly double the usual number of storms, including notable hurricanes impacting Hawaii.
The scientific understanding of El Niño’s impact on both Atlantic and Pacific storm activity allowed forecasters to predict the current quiet Atlantic hurricane season, although its extent has surprised experts.