U.S. Representative Ed Case of Hawaii secured a decisive victory against state Senator Jarrett Keohokalole in the Democratic primary. Case, a 73-year-old moderate representing Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District, overcame his most challenging contest in recent years. This win represents a significant moment for the party’s establishment following a trend of incumbent defeats across the country.

Keohokalole, who is 43, advocated for a shift in leadership. He frequently criticized Case’s positions on immigration and election policies, expressing the need for change. Despite this, Case captured about 60% of the vote, while Keohokalole received approximately 36%, according to Decision Desk HQ. The remainder was split among other candidates.

Why the Race Drew National Attention

The primary was one of many races this cycle where progressive challengers targeted veteran House Democrats. Keohokalole emphasized generational change and urged stronger actions on issues like affordability and healthcare. He challenged Case for supporting President Trump’s Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, arguing for a more aggressive approach in politics.

Case defended his voting record, noting that the version of the SAVE Act he supported allowed voters to sign a written proof of citizenship if unable to present required documents. He highlighted his contributions during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Red Hill water crisis, and the Maui wildfires.

Major Hawaii Primary Winners

• Governor: Democratic nominee Governor Josh Green won with about 83% of the vote. Republican nominee Gary Cordery won the GOP primary.
• Lieutenant Governor: Democratic nominee Derek Kawakami. Republican nominee Daniel Anthony.
• U.S. House District 1: Case secured the Democratic nomination. Republican Adriel Lam ran unopposed.
• U.S. House District 2: Democratic Representative Jill Tokuda won with over 84%. Republican State Senator Brenton Awa ran unopposed.

In a notable state legislative outcome, state Representative Jackson Sayama defeated incumbent state Senator Les Ihara Jr. in Hawaii Senate District 10, leading by nearly 30 percentage points.

Outlook for Ed Case in November

Heading into the general election, Case appears to be in a strong position. Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District, encompassing Honolulu and much of urban Oahu, is solidly Democratic. The Cook Political Report rates the district D+13, indicating a significant partisan advantage.

According to the prediction market Polymarket, as of Sunday morning, Democrats have about a 95% chance of retaining the seat, compared to approximately 6% for Republicans. With Case as the Democratic nominee, these odds are favorable.