President Donald Trump recently challenged the results of the 2020 U.S. election, citing a report that purportedly shows thousands of noncitizens voted. Trump referenced a U.S. Census Bureau report in a Truth Social post, which he claimed found 24,000 noncitizens voted illegally. This analysis is described as preliminary.
Experts, however, argue that the report’s methodology may have led to false positives. Let’s examine the details.
Claim Overview
A claim has been made that a Census Bureau report examining 128 million voters confirms that more than 24,000 noncitizens participated in the 2020 election.
The Facts
This claim is false. The report compares commercial voter files against federal records to identify alleged noncitizens who voted. Experts warn that the methodology may have resulted in inaccuracies, such as incorrect address linkage or outdated citizenship status.
Mark Lindeman, policy and strategy director at Verified Voting, criticized the report’s weak methodology description. He stated that it provides no substantive information about elections and questioned the credibility of the analysis.
The Census Bureau’s choice of databases and its failure to address possible errors have raised concerns. The seven-page report claims that out of nearly 160 million voter records reviewed, over 24,000 are linked to noncitizen status with a high confidence level. More than 32 million voter records remain unanalyzed.
Critique from Experts
Justin Levitt, a Loyola Marymount University law professor, highlighted three potential sources of error: inaccuracies in the private vendor’s voter file, federal records, and the matching process (record linkage).
Lindeman noted various flaws in the data. These could include people sharing the same name or birthday at a single address, or mismatched identities due to similar names.
Barry Burden, director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Elections Research Center, emphasized the report’s lack of credibility. He criticized it for not meeting traditional standards of rigor and transparency.
Political Context
Trump reiterated his claim of victory in the 2020 election and advocated for the SAVE America Act. This legislation seeks to require documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration and nationwide voter ID mandates. The act has cleared the U.S. House but lacks Senate approval.
Even if 24,000 noncitizen voters existed and all supported a candidate other than Trump, this fraction (.015% of total votes) would not affect the 2020 outcome. Joe Biden won 7,059,526 more votes than Trump, and these numbers are smaller than the margin needed to change results in any state.
David Becker, executive director at the Center for Election Innovation and Research, stressed that the numbers cited are insufficient to alter the election’s outcome.
Responses from Officials
White House spokesperson Lauren Bis remarked that Trump is correct about non-citizens voting despite opposition claims, although concrete evidence is debated. The Census Bureau has not issued comments regarding the report’s accuracy.