The realm of U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump has seen significant developments and shifts in influence. Notably, the role of the Secretary of Defense has become increasingly pivotal within the administration.

As of September 30, 2026, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stands out as the most influential senior official. His presence was clearly marked on September 24, as he walked along the colonnade at the White House, captured in a photograph by Jacquelyn Martin for the Associated Press.

Emma Ashford, a contributor to Foreign Policy magazine, which offers varied insights into global affairs, reflects on her predictions regarding Trump’s foreign policy. While her forecasts have mostly been correct about the administration’s overarching strategies, she acknowledges certain inaccuracies. One such assumption was the expectation of escalating tensions and rivalry with China, a perspective widely shared in Washington.

A more significant oversight involved Ashford’s previous belief that Trump did not favor engaging in conflict with Iran. This misjudgment has led her to reassess not only Trump’s strategy toward Iran but also his broader decision-making logic. Her reflections underscore the complexity and unpredictability that characterize the current administration’s approach to international relations.