Decades-Long Waits for U.S. Employment-Based Immigration: An Analysis
The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) has released an analysis examining the extensive delays faced by applicants for permanent residency in the U.S. employment-based immigration system. The study highlights that professionals from India experience the longest delays due to visa backlogs and statutory limits on the number of green cards issued each year.
NFAP’s report delves into backlogs in three employment-based preference categories: EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3. According to the analysis, a highly skilled worker from India whose application is filed in January 2026 or later may wait approximately 179 years in EB-2, 38 years in EB-3, and four to five years in EB-1.
Causes of the Backlog
The expected delays arise from an enduring backlog, fueled by a combination of annual caps on employment-based immigrant visas, country-specific limits, and persistent demand for foreign-born professionals such as scientists and engineers. NFAP anticipates that Indians filing for EB-2 or EB-3 visas in 2025 or 2026 could face decades-long waits if immigration laws are not revised.
The U.S. State Department conveyed to Newsweek that it often reaches the annual visa limits for certain categories and nationalities before the fiscal year ends. Notifications are regularly posted online when these limits are met.
Recent changes under the Trump administration have tightened regulations and intensified scrutiny across various legal immigration pathways, including employment-based visas and green card applications. This includes higher fees, extended vetting, and additional restrictions affecting foreign workers, along with efforts to complicate obtaining or maintaining legal status.
The State Department characterizes each visa decision as a national security decision, processing all applications according to statutory requirements and based on when the immigrant visa petition was filed.
Report Findings
The report estimates that the backlog in EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 categories reached 1.26 million by December 2025, a rise from around 1.05 million in April 2020—a 20.6% increase. The backlog in the EB-2 category rose by 22.9%, and the EB-3 backlog increased by 30.1%, while the EB-1 backlog decreased by 16.6%.
India has the largest share of this backlog with nearly 1 million Indian nationals waiting for employment-based green cards by December 2025—79% of the total backlog. Of this, 731,566 are in EB-2, and 213,414 are in EB-3.
The report shows differing wait times by country of birth. Applicants from China filing in 2026 could face waits of five years in EB-1, 25 years in EB-2, and seven years in EB-3. For applicants from the Philippines, waits are zero years in EB-1, around 0.3 years in EB-2, and six years in EB-3.
NFAP’s estimates are projections based on current data, but actual waiting times can vary due to factors like priority dates, future demand, legal changes, and extra visa availability. Processing times by government agencies are not included in these estimates.
Reasons for the Backlog
The report attributes the backlog to two main features of U.S. immigration law: a 140,000 annual limit on employment-based green cards and per-country caps limiting nationals of any country to 7% of available immigrant visas. Large-population countries like India, China, and the Philippines face disproportionate impacts as they compete for the same allocation as smaller nations.
In 2016, NFAP estimated that over 98,000 Indians were approved for EB-2 including dependents, yet only 4,407 received permanent residence, resulting in over 90,000 individuals added to the backlog in one year. Similar patterns continued subsequently.
Visa Bulletin and Current Status
For September 2026, the Visa Bulletin lists final action dates: October 15, 2022, for India’s EB-1 and July 1, 2023, for China, with EB-1 current for the Philippines and most countries. In EB-2, India is listed as unavailable, China’s date is September 1, 2021, and the Philippines is current. EB-3 final action dates are January 1, 2014, for India, January 1, 2022, for China, and August 1, 2023, for the Philippines.
The bulletin informs applicants of steps in the visa process, soliciting needed documents or scheduling appointments but does not assure immigration status or visa approval.
Despite additional employment-based green cards issued from unused family-sponsored visas from 2020 to 2024, NFAP estimates the backlog persists. NFAP concludes that without statutory amendments, the employment-based immigration backlog will remain, indefinitely delaying permanent residency for foreign professionals based on visa category and birthplace.