Interim South Carolina Senator Darline Graham has gained a substantial lead in the race to become the state’s GOP permanent Senate nominee. A new Quantus Insights poll indicates Graham securing 30.4 percent support on the initial ballot. Representative Ralph Norman follows with 17.5 percent, while Representative Russell Fry and former Governor Mark Sanford trail with 16.6 percent and 15.4 percent respectively. Undecided voters account for 11.7 percent.
Allocating those undecided percentages further boosts Graham’s support to 33.1 percent. Norman increases to 20.4 percent, Fry to 19.6 percent, and Sanford to 17.4 percent. Newsweek reached out to Norman’s and Fry’s campaigns for comment without success.
Key Details About the August 11 Special Primary
Early voting concluded for the primary triggered by Senator Lindsey Graham’s sudden death on July 11 due to cardiovascular disease. Ten Republican candidates vie for the seat:
- Darline Graham: Trump-endorsed interim senator.
- Ralph Norman: Conservative congressman from South Carolina’s 5th District.
- Russell Fry: GOP congressman from the 7th District.
- Mark Sanford: Former governor attempting a political return.
- Mark Lynch: A previous Senate candidate from Greenville.
- Duke Buckner: Attorney promoting outsider conservative values.
- Glenda Gail Parker: Retired officer focusing on cost-of-living.
- Danny Ford II: Farmer emphasizing accountability.
- Mark McBride: Former Myrtle Beach mayor.
- Sam Shepherd: Biomedical engineer and entrepreneur.
Graham’s Prospects
Although new to political office, Graham received a significant push from Donald Trump’s endorsement. He praised her as a “true American Patriot” and encouraged her candidacy. Trump assured South Carolina voters that Graham “will never let you down.”
The recent Quantus Insights survey reflects Graham’s strongest numbers. In contrast, a late-July Emerson College survey had Norman ahead with 22 percent, while Graham trailed at 19 percent. Another poll by Resonance Media Services in July positioned Graham with the lead at 20.8 percent.
Polls suggest Graham is a formidable contender, though competition for second place remains fierce.
Prediction Market Insights
Prediction markets favor Graham’s chances more than traditional polls. On Polymarket, they estimate a 65 percent chance for Graham to finish first. On Kalshi, Graham holds 47 percent to win the primary overall, outranking Fry (27 percent) and Norman (23 percent).
Looking Ahead
The contest is highly competitive, with Graham in a strong position. Early voting ended with over 41,000 ballots. The race tests Trump’s influence after his endorsement of Graham. Gibbs Knotts, a political science professor, warns of potential fallout: “Republicans need to be careful… you don’t want to go into the general election having just pummeled each other.”
Contacting Newsweek’s editors regarding this story: Matthew Robinson and Trevor Davies.