A Democratic congressman recently criticized a prediction market that allows users to bet on the number of immigrants the Trump administration will deport this year. These markets surfaced following the administration’s promise of mass deportations, with goals reported as high as 1 million removals in the first year. Despite these claims, obtaining accurate deportation data has been challenging.
The market on Kalshi presents different deportation numbers as outcomes, with a high probability assigned to removing over 400,000 people from the U.S. Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton expressed his disapproval of this market on social media, stating it is ‘disgusting’ and urged the site to shut down the bet. Moulton highlighted that betting on deportation figures trivializes human lives.
Moulton posted, ‘Kalshi letting users bet on deportation numbers is just as perverse as Polymarket letting people wager on the lives of our troops.’
Moulton emphasized his role as the first member of Congress to ban staff from trading on prediction markets, arguing that human lives should not be treated as commodities. He called on Kalshi to close the market to uphold ethical standards. Newsweek reached out to Moulton’s office, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and Kalshi for comments.
Interestingly, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) seemed to embrace the market. DHS’s response to Newsweek used gambling terminology, hinting confidence that deportation numbers may exceed expectations of many traders.
Seth Moulton’s Record on Immigration
Moulton’s objections to the Kalshi market align with his history of immigration advocacy. He has frequently criticized Trump-era enforcement policies and advocated for increased legal protections for migrants. In June, he introduced legislation to restore judicial review for Temporary Protected Status (TPS) cases, highlighting the risk of deportation faced by many immigrants without adequate legal process.
Moulton’s office also provides guidelines for immigrants interacting with ICE, detailing constitutional rights and access to legal representation. While he does not oppose all immigration enforcement, Moulton argues that policies should ensure due-process protections and judicial oversight.
Legality of Prediction Markets
The legality of prediction markets like Kalshi’s is under debate. Operating as a federally regulated exchange registered with the CFTC, Kalshi considers its contracts as financial instruments under federal commodities law. However, the Commodity Exchange Act permits regulated exchanges to list event contracts, while also allowing the CFTC to ban contracts seen as contrary to public interest.
Where prediction markets fit regarding elections, government actions, and sensitive events remains unresolved. Democratic lawmakers have urged stricter regulation of prediction markets, especially those tied to government actions or military operations.
Deportations Under Trump’s Administration
While immigration enforcement has increased since Trump’s return to office, data suggest deportations are below the goal of 1 million annual removals. ICE removal figures from immigration experts reveal approximately 400,000 deportations during Trump’s initial year, a rise from previous years but insufficient to meet the administration’s target.
Experts caution that assessing deportations is complex due to overlapping functions of ICE, Customs and Border Protection (CBP), and Border Patrol. ICE’s increased removals nevertheless illustrate the administration’s focus on interior enforcement. These figures are closely monitored as they are central to Trump’s immigration policy objectives. The Kalshi market controversy stems from traders placing bets on this significant policy measure, turning a sensitive issue into financial speculation—a point noted by Moulton.