In mid-June, it seemed inevitable that Aroldis Chapman, Willson Contreras, or Sonny Gray would soon list their Boston properties for sale by summer’s end. Yet, prospects have shifted, and all three might stay residents through the college move-in season.
The Boston Red Sox have emerged from the MLB All-Star break in a strong position within the American League playoff race. They are riding a six-game winning streak and stand just half a game away from a wild card spot. Previously, the veteran trio, along with most of the roster, appeared as clear trade candidates. Now, the outlook has changed substantially.
“So much for selling; they have to be all in,” an anonymous National League evaluator mentioned to The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey.
However, the Red Sox’s decision not to sell does not necessarily imply they will become buyers. Several weak spots in the team are likely to be addressed through internal solutions. Garrett Crochet is currently undergoing rehabilitation, and updates on fellow pitchers Ranger Suarez and Connelly Early suggest they may not be sidelined for much longer. Meanwhile, Anthony Seigler has temporarily strengthened the middle infield, though the anticipated returns of Trevor Story and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are set to provide more experienced options.
The current trade deadline environment is complex. Typically, struggling teams sell their assets while successful teams aim to rectify weaknesses in pursuit of becoming formidable contenders. Yet, the New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays, despite being in last place, have large payrolls and might not engage in significant trades. Additionally, both the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West standings, remain hopeful of their postseason prospects. Even the Detroit Tigers may reconsider trading ace Tarik Skubal.
If anything, retaining an All-Star closer, Chapman, and star first baseman, Contreras, along with a should-have-been All-Star in Gray, positions the Red Sox’s front office as likely candidates for discussions leading up to the trade deadline. This could still happen. Contreras and Chapman have contracts through next season, and Gray’s mutual option stands at $25 million, according to Spotrac. Despite positive momentum on Jersey Street, the Red Sox are not yet leading the American League and might still benefit from trading older talent for long-term prospects. Should the team struggle in a challenging stretch after the break, Contreras and Gray may be convinced to consider waiving their no-trade clauses, even though Contreras has publicly denied this possibility.
A recent incident involving Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero, who suffered a hand injury during Tuesday’s All-Star Game, adds an unexpected dynamic to the AL East race. Though reports confirm negative X-rays, the Rays only need to look within their division for a cautionary tale—losing their top offensive player could dramatically impact their season, as seen with the Yankees’ struggles without Aaron Judge. With the division’s two top teams potentially weakened offensively, the Red Sox might find this an opportune moment to capitalize.