Francesca Hong’s unexpected defeat in Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary has raised questions about polling accuracy. Pre-election surveys indicated Hong, a state representative and democratic socialist, had a commanding lead over her more traditional opponent.

Surveys estimated her leading by margins ranging from 18 to 36 points just weeks before the election. Despite these predictions, she lost to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley by 0.5 percentage points.

This result marks the second consecutive week where a progressive Democrat’s supposed polling advantage dissolved at the polls. Understanding what led to this discrepancy is crucial for future elections and the credibility of polling in political races.