More than a year into President Donald Trump’s second term, analysis by Newsweek of recent state-level polling indicates a decline in his approval ratings across the country. Notable decreases appear in states that previously supported him strongly.
Key Points
- Net approval has dropped in every state since Trump resumed office in January 2025.
- The most substantial declines are in traditionally Republican-leaning states.
- Battleground states like Florida, Ohio, and Nevada have shifted to net disapproval.
- Initial pro-Trump support has significantly narrowed, even in his core states.
The political map still reflects a partisan split, but with reduced margins across the board. The figures derive from Civiqs’ continuous online tracking poll of registered voters, which collected over 107,000 responses between January 20, 2025, and May 26, 2026. By comparing these with results from the start of Trump’s second term, Newsweek assessed changes in net approval, calculated as the difference between approval and disapproval. Because this tracker utilizes continuous surveying and statistical modeling, the results reflect trends rather than one-time snapshots.
The tracker shows net approval decreased in every state since Trump’s second term began; notable declines are concentrated in a mix of Republican strongholds and important battlegrounds. Readers can use the interactive map to compare Trump’s net approval rating by state from the beginning of his second term to the latest estimates.
Biggest Drops: Where Approval Has Fallen the Most
The largest net approval declines highlight significant ground lost:
- Wyoming: +47 → +22 (down 25 points)
- Kentucky: +23 → 0 (down 23 points)
- Nebraska: +18 → -4 (down 22 points)
- Alaska: +9 → -12 (down 21 points)
- Florida: +9 → -12 (down 21 points)
- Oklahoma: +31 → +10 (down 21 points)
- Nevada: 0 → -20 (down 20 points)
- Maine: -12 → -31 (down 19 points)
- Ohio: +8 → -11 (down 19 points)
- Utah: +20 → +1 (down 19 points)
States like Idaho, Tennessee, and Montana also show a 19-point fall, while Kansas and West Virginia are down by 18 points. These figures reveal shifts from initially comfortable pro-Trump margins, with several states even falling into negative approval territory.
Swing States: From Competitive to Negative
Changes in battleground states carry significant political implications. Several have crossed crucial thresholds:
- Florida: +9 → -12
- Ohio: +8 → -11
- Nevada: 0 → -20
- Nebraska: +18 → -4
Other states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina remain competitive but show further declines since the start of the term. This pattern emphasizes Trump’s declining approval in states critical for national election outcomes.
Deep Red States: Still Positive, but Eroding
In deeply Republican states, Trump’s support has noticeably weakened. Despite positive net approval, states like Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, and Montana have seen losses close to 20 points since January 2025. Even Wyoming, Trump’s strongest state, has witnessed its net advantage decrease significantly. This suggests his base is intact but less powerful than at his second term’s outset.
Deep Blue States: Opposition Holds Firm
In Democratic-leaning states, Trump’s approval ratings began sharply negative and have worsened. States like California, New York, and Massachusetts show deeper negative net approval today compared to the start, although with smaller changes than in red states. This situation underscores entrenched opposition to Trump’s presidency.
What’s Driving the Drop
The states with the largest declines share a common trend: decreased approval and increased disapproval, often by similar margins. In numerous cases, approval has decreased by 10 to 14 points, while disapproval has risen by 8 to 11 points. This two-way shift underscores the change in voter sentiment. Wyoming exemplifies this trend:
- Approval: 72 → 58 (down 14)
- Disapproval: 25 → 36 (up 11)
- Net: +47 → +22 (down 25)
When approval and disapproval move simultaneously, net approval can decline rapidly, as seen nationwide.
A National Map That Looks Familiar—But Weaker
The data presents a political map familiar in structure but weaker in strength. Trump’s strongest and weakest states remain unchanged. However, margins have shrunk across the board. Initially, Trump held clear positive net approval across much of the Republican map. More than a year later, many of those states are narrowly positive, evenly split, or negative. This development suggests unchanged dividing lines, yet shifting ground beneath them.
White House Response
The White House downplays recent polling significance, citing Trump’s 2024 election win as a testament to public support. Spokesperson Davis Ingle emphasizes the administration’s mandate from the nearly 80 million Americans who voted for Trump, framing the result as the agenda’s overriding verdict. The White House continues to focus on priorities like jobs, inflation, and housing affordability, asserting that the impact of policies will become clearer over time.