Talarico’s Lead Drops

Recent opinion polls indicate a slight dip in James Talarico’s lead over Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. Democrats aim to seize Senate control in the midterms, and winning Texas, a historically Republican territory, could bolster their prospects.

Latest Poll Results

The Texas Public Opinion Research survey, conducted between September 19-22 with 1,007 likely voters, shows Talarico leading by five points. He holds 49 percent of the vote, compared to Paxton’s 44 percent. This marks a one-point drop from the previous survey conducted in late August.

Significantly, the percentage of undecided voters fell from seven percent in August to three percent. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown has gained two percentage points. The change in Talarico’s support is within the survey’s 3.6 percent margin of error.

Texas Southern University Study

In a separate Texas Southern University survey of 1,800 likely voters, Talarico’s lead narrows to one point, with him receiving 47 percent, Paxton 46 percent, and Brown three percent. This poll has a 2.31 percent margin of error.

Previously, Talarico led by two points in their July poll. The percentage of undecided voters decreased from six percent to four percent. Both polls show shifts within the margin of error.

Other Polls

Eight separate pollsters show Talarico ahead, though many results fall within the margin of error. For example, Emerson College’s survey from September 12-14 reports a one-point lead for Talarico, with 47 percent of the vote over Paxton’s 46 percent.

An AARP poll conducted from August 30 to September 1 indicated a four-point lead for Talarico. YouGov/Univision’s poll, collected from August 27 to September 4, placed him ahead by five points, both having margins of error around three percent.

Debate Challenge

Talarico has publicly urged Paxton to a debate on Fox News during the Texas Tribune Festival. He criticized Paxton for avoiding debates, suggesting a confrontation on Ken Paxton’s perceived safe platform.

Campaign Funding

Federal Election Commission data as of June 30 shows Talarico’s campaign raised $31,853,507, vastly surpassing Paxton’s $9,147,100. Notably, 45 percent of Talarico’s funding came from outside Texas, with California being a major donor, compared to 17.1 percent for Paxton.