Amid challenging economic conditions and an unpopular war, Donald Trump’s allies remain optimistic about Republican prospects for the upcoming November elections. They believe success hinges on mobilizing the president’s base.

An election devoid of Trump voter turnout would spell disaster for Republicans, risking the party’s slim majorities in both the House and Senate, as noted by Saul Loeb of AFP via Getty Images.

On September 2, 2026, senior advisers to President Trump convened with his pollster last month to analyze the latest poll data. The analysis painted a concerning picture, according to a person acquainted with the conversation.