In a surprising turn, some affluent Republican neighborhoods in Texas have financially supported a Democratic candidate more than the GOP nominee for the Senate. According to analysis by The Houston Chronicle of Federal Election Commission records, Democrat James Talarico’s fundraising outpaces Republican candidate Ken Paxton in ZIP codes that previously supported Donald Trump.
Texas has become pivotal in the Senate control battle. Democrats aim to win a Senate seat in Texas for the first time since 1988, leveraging Trump’s low approval ratings. In University Park, a town within a Trump-supported district, Talarico raised $214,296, surpassing Paxton’s $181,656 as of June 30. This town ranks second in individual contributions to Paxton’s Senate campaign nationwide.
This trend is consistent in other areas. Across 11 ZIP codes in four metropolitan areas, previously supporting Trump, Talarico raised approximately $1.3 million from individuals, with Paxton receiving about $422,000.
The Woodlands, a community north of Houston, shows the widest gap. Talarico raised $238,622 across four ZIP codes compared to Paxton’s $39,281. Specifically, in ZIP code 77381, Talarico collected $98,103 against Paxton’s $19,247. Further disparities are evident in West Houston and the Katy and Richmond suburbs.
Paxton performed better in Dallas’ Highland Park, raising $211,701, his single best ZIP code. However, even there, Talarico outperformed him significantly in nearby areas.
The Chronicle’s analysis reveals that money is flowing to Talarico from traditionally Republican-held areas. Despite Trump winning House Districts 15, 133, and 26 in recent elections, Talarico’s fundraising indicates shifting support.
Talarico’s largest funding sources still came from regions that opposed Trump. His top area in Texas is ZIP code 78746, west of Austin, where he raised $584,863 compared to Paxton’s $145,365. Harris won significantly in this district during prior elections.
Despite achieving gains in Republican areas, Talarico’s substantial contributions align with areas previously voting against Trump, strengthening his financial position.
The fundraising gap widened gradually over multiple quarters as Paxton struggled while competing against Senator John Cornyn for the nomination. During significant periods, Paxton’s fundraising slowed while Talarico consistently collected substantial funds.
Despite raising over $9 million post-nomination, Paxton’s previous fundraising figures lagged significantly behind Talarico’s impressive $68.6 million total through June 30.
Reportedly, Paxton blamed Trump for hindering fundraising efforts due to his involvement in party events. This claim, disclosed through an attendee-recorded audio at a private Washington fundraiser, received skepticism but reflected internal campaign frustrations.
Polling data mostly shows Talarico ahead, though margins fluctuate. Of eight recent surveys, Talarico led in six by one to six points. Some polls indicated ties or slight leads for Paxton, but sponsored by partisan interests.
Independent polls affirm Talarico’s lead. Marist University, Emerson College, Slingshot Strategies, and others showcase Talarico maintaining a slight edge, though most remain within margins of error.