Democrats are launching competitive Senate and gubernatorial races in states where President Donald Trump previously won by wide margins in the 2024 presidential election. These key states include Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas. The developments have raised questions about the Republicans’ potential challenges ahead of the 2026 midterms and whether the Democrats can seize these opportunities.

Trump’s Declining Approval Ratings

Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, emphasized the relevance of presidential approval ratings and economic conditions in predicting midterm election outcomes. He noted that Trump’s declining ratings in both areas are making races more competitive.

Trump’s approval ratings have worried some Republicans. A Civiqs poll as of August 27 reported that 35% approve of Trump’s performance, while 59% disapprove, resulting in a net approval of -24. Since January 2025, 126,377 responses were gathered. Similarly, an Economist/YouGov poll on August 25 found Trump with a net approval of -26, compared to previous net approvals during his first term and Biden’s presidency.

Aggregators like RealClearPolitics and Silver Bulletin reflect Trump’s approval around 40% and 38%, respectively. A Strength in Numbers/Verasight poll found him underwater on all 12 tracked issues, with border security dipping to -5. This poll surveyed 1,514 U.S. adults in mid-August.

Alex Patton from Ozean Media described the political situation as a “toxic soup” involving economic factors, inflation, low approval numbers, and geopolitical issues. He labeled the environment as ‘terrible’ for Republicans.

Hans Noel from Georgetown University observed that Trump’s involvement in midterm campaigns intensifies voters’ focus on him.

2024 Election Background

Trump won the 2024 presidential election against Kamala Harris, securing 312 Electoral College votes to her 226 and winning the popular vote. He carried 31 states, with 24 taken by double-digit margins. Notable victories include Ohio and Wyoming, winning by 11.2 and 45.8 points, respectively.

Republicans regained Senate control in 2024, flipping Democratic seats, and maintained the House majority.

Mark Jones from Rice University sees a reversal of fortunes for the GOP from Trump’s election success in 2024, now facing challenges in 2026 midterms.

The 2026 Midterms

Experts note that typically, the party holding the presidency loses seats in midterms. While Trump’s approval will influence 2026 outcomes, candidate quality and local issues also shape competitive races.

Historically, Democrats lost significant numbers of seats in the 2010 and 2014 midterms under Obama, who had higher approval ratings than Trump now. Republicans faced similar challenges during Trump’s first term in 2018, losing 40 House seats.

Democratic strategist Doug Gordon argued Trump’s unpopularity and perceived failure to handle economic issues present Democrats with winning chances in difficult states.

However, some analysts, including Tim Hagle from the University of Iowa, argue that midterms still focus heavily on local issues, though nationalization attempts exist.

Observers noticed changes in the Senate map, suggesting Democrats have pathways to gain a majority previously unforeseen.

Georgetown’s Noel mentioned efforts by the Democratic Party to reconnect with voters lost to Trump, utilizing midterms as an opportunity to test strategies.

Focus on Key States

Alaska

Trump won Alaska by 13.1 points in 2024. Despite a Republican tilt, Alaska’s ranked-choice voting keeps statewide races competitive. Democrats view Alaska’s Senate race as a pickup opportunity with Mary Peltola challenging Senator Dan Sullivan.

Recent polls indicate a tight race between Peltola and Sullivan, with Peltola showing slight leads in ranked-choice projections. The Cook Political Report rates the race a “toss-up.”

Ohio

Ohio is a focal point for Democrats, with Trump winning by a larger margin in 2024 than in previous cycles. Despite a Republican trend, Ohio has Democratic electoral history. Sherrod Brown, a former Democratic senator, is contesting against Republican Jon Husted.

Polls reveal a close contest, with Brown leading in several surveys. The Cook Political Report labels it a toss-up.

Texas

Texas has long favored Republicans, with Trump winning by 13.7 points in 2024. However, Democrats aim to capitalize on demographic changes and candidate vulnerabilities. Democratic contender James Talarico challenges Republican Ken Paxton for a Senate seat.

Controversies around Paxton, including impeachment concerns, have spotlighted this race as competitive, with mixed poll results showing narrow margins.

Iowa

Despite recent Republican success, Iowa has seen Democratic victories in the past. Ashley Hinson represents Republicans against Democrat Josh Turek for the Senate, succeeding Joni Ernst.

Although Emerson and other polls show the race as competitive, with Hinson slightly ahead, the Cook Political Report adjusted its ratings to show a tighter contest.

Kansas

Kansas’ gubernatorial race emerges as unexpectedly competitive. Democrat Cindy Holscher aims to succeed Democratic Governor Laura Kelly. Republican Ty Masterson is the party’s favored candidate; however, early polls show a tight race.

The ratings from election forecasters slightly favor Republicans but acknowledge competitiveness.