The Indiana Fever have been on an impressive run, boasting a record of 24-12. They face the Dallas Wings, who have a record of 20-16, on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET. The Fever have a strong post-All-Star break performance, achieving a 7-2 straight up (SU) record and 5-4 against the spread (ATS). They are currently on a five-game winning streak. Conversely, the Dallas Wings have struggled since the All-Star Game, holding a 2-7 SU and ATS. They have lost five of their last six games and have not covered in six consecutive matches.

The season series between the Fever and Wings is tied 1-1 both SU and ATS. Indiana evened the series with a 98-87 victory over Dallas this past Friday. Initially, Dallas had won 107-104 during their season opener.

Caitlin Clark overcame an injury scare to score 29 points against the Dallas Wings, helping the Fever secure the top spot in the East.

During their last meeting, despite missing leading rebounder and player efficiency rating (PER) leader Jessica Shepard, Dallas was ahead by 3 points entering the fourth quarter. In their first encounter this year, Shepard led all players in rebounds and assists.

Why Dallas Might Cover the Spread

Indiana has been on a winning streak, which positions them for a potential loss soon, especially against a team twice in a close span. Here’s why betting on Dallas might be wise:

• Best Bet: Dallas Wings +2.5 (-105) at DraftKings.

A comparison between Dallas’ Paige Bueckers and Indiana’s Caitlin Clark reveals Bueckers as statistically stronger. Both were top picks and Rookie of the Year winners, each averaging nearly 20 points per game. Yet, Bueckers boasts a higher career PER and a superior on/off rating. She has a better shooting percentage from the field and commits fewer turnovers.

The recent season-ending surgery for Dallas’ Azzi Fudd impacts the team. As a leading scorer in three-pointers made per game, Fudd’s absence could enhance Bueckers’ role. Bueckers averages 22.5 points per game against the Fever.

Home and away performances significantly differ for both teams. Dallas shows a +6.4 margin at home, but a -2.1 margin on the road. Indiana performs with a +8.7 margin at home and +2.8 on the road.

While Indiana gets to the free-throw line more often, Dallas ranks third in defensive free-throw attempts per field goal attempt rate. This defensive advantage, paired with the typical favorable home whistle, helped Dallas in both matches against the Fever this season.

Mastering possession battles is crucial, particularly in the WNBA. Dallas has a better turnover rate on both ends. Their game schedule also gives them a rest advantage. Dallas played last on Monday, while Indiana has played twice since their last meeting.

Game Prediction

Projected Score: Wings 94, Fever 88.

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