Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford emerged victorious in Nevada’s Democratic primary, setting the stage for a showdown with Republican Governor Joe Lombardo in November. This race is anticipated to be intensely competitive as Nevada is a crucial battleground state. Previously, the state supported President Donald Trump in 2024 by about 3 percentage points, shifting from its Democratic preference in 2016 and 2020. Before Lombardo, the state had a Democrat, Steve Sisolak, leading.

Nevada’s Gubernatorial Race

Ford defeated Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill and several others in the primary. His victory might indicate that establishment-endorsed candidates have strong appeal in statewide contests, potentially outpacing more progressive challengers. If successful in the general election, Ford would become Nevada’s first Black governor. According to the Associated Press, Ford secured 66.2 percent of the vote, while Hill received 21.1 percent. The race was called for Ford at 11:45 p.m. Lombardo, endorsed for the November contest, had 91.4 percent of the vote when called at 11:35 p.m. ET.

Lombardo, considered among the more vulnerable Republican incumbents, has mostly aligned with Trump but has distanced himself at critical moments. This includes not appearing with Trump during a Las Vegas visit in April and expressing concerns about deportation plan costs.

Poll Insights

Support for Ford includes an endorsement from former Vice President Kamala Harris. Polls indicate a tight race. A March survey by Noble Predictive Insights showed Lombardo with a 1-point lead—39 percent to Ford’s 38 percent. In this poll, 6 percent favored a third-party option, with 17 percent undecided. Within the independent and moderate voters, Lombardo had small leads, but Ford showed strong support among Hispanics and women. Lombardo’s favorability was 48 percent compared to Ford’s 40 percent, with a higher unknown factor for Ford among voters—27 percent either unfamiliar or undecided about him, compared to 14 percent for Lombardo. The poll involved 845 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.37 percentage points.

Another poll from Emerson College in November showcased a tie, with both contenders at 41 percent and 18 percent of voters undecided. This survey involved 800 registered Nevada voters with an error margin of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents in this poll showed 36 percent disapproval and 34 percent approval of Lombardo as governor.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets currently give Democrats a slight advantage. Kalshi indicates a 56 percent chance for Democrats to win the governor’s office, while Republicans hold a 46 percent chance. Polymarket reflects similar probabilities with Democrats at 54 percent and Republicans at 43 percent.