The United States government has adopted a strategy against Cuba that mirrors its approach in Venezuela. This includes a petroleum blockade, increased U.S. military presence, federal charges, and repeated intervention threats. Experts caution that similar pressure campaigns do not always yield similar outcomes.
Trump’s Perspective
President Donald Trump viewed the intervention in Venezuela as a significant success. He has attempted to apply the same model elsewhere, including Iran. Brian Finucane, a senior advisor at the International Crisis Group, explains that Cuba, like Iran, is quite different from Venezuela.
Finucane notes that if the U.S. were to overthrow the Cuban government, identifying a successor friendly to Trump’s administration would be challenging. This contrasts with Venezuela, where the U.S. captured President Nicolás Maduro, and Delcy Rodríguez assumed leadership with American approval.
Military Presence
The U.S. military presence in the Caribbean is now smaller and less intimidating compared to the significant deployment before Maduro’s capture. Finucane points out that fewer forces and a less impactful indictment against a former Cuban leader diminish U.S. influence.
Military Threats
Trump initiated threats of military action months before moving against Venezuela, warning Caribbean leaders to align with U.S. interests. In January, Trump shifted attention to Cuba, suggesting it was next.
He threatened tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba and alluded to possible U.S. intervention, characterizing Cuba as a failing state.
Oil Embargoes
The U.S. oil embargoes against Cuba and Venezuela target different objectives. The Venezuelan embargo aimed to strip Maduro’s government of revenue. Post-Maduro, the focus shifted to preventing Venezuela from supplying oil to Cuba, affecting Cuba’s energy situation.
For Cuba, the embargo restricts oil imports, worsening energy shortages. The long-standing blockade makes it harder for the Cuban government to provide electricity and gasoline. Finucane warns that further pressure could trigger a migrant crisis toward Florida.
U.S. Charges Against Leaders
The U.S. Justice Department charged Maduro with narcoterrorism-related crimes, which led to his capture. This shifted U.S.-Venezuela relations, allowing some Venezuelan oil to reach global markets.
The indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over a 1996 incident escalates the pressure on Cuba but is unlikely to alter the government’s day-to-day operations.
Military Deployment
The U.S. deployed significant military resources before Maduro’s capture, including the USS Gerald R. Ford and amphibious assault ships. Current forces in the Caribbean are reduced, but still include amphibious vehicles and the USS Nimitz participating in regional exercises.
Finucane observes that capturing a Cuban leader like Castro is unlikely to produce results similar to Venezuela. The situations in Cuba and Venezuela are distinctly different.
This report includes contributions from AP journalist Andrea Rodríguez in Havana.
Note: This story was translated from English with the help of a generative AI tool.