President Donald Trump has indicated that the ceasefire with Iran has ended. He expressed uncertainty about pursuing a deal and suggested that the U.S. should complete its objectives. Despite this, he claimed that further attacks wouldn’t mean a return to war or prolonged operations.
The confusion over Trump’s messages and recent military strikes raises questions about future developments. This comes after challenging diplomatic efforts to secure an initial deal between the U.S. and Iran. The mixed signals might increase pressure on Tehran to end attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and comply with U.S. nuclear program demands—a strategy Trump has used before. Whether as a negotiation tactic or escalation signal, mediators are working to save the interim deal. The situation could worsen tensions, affecting the Republicans in the midterm elections if gas prices remain high.
On Wednesday, Trump warned of new U.S. attacks, dismissing ideas of full-scale war. Soon after, the military announced strikes on Iran to hinder their threat to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated, “Anything that happens is going to happen very fast. We’re not looking for a long time.”
Efforts to Salvage the Ceasefire
A regional intelligence official involved in mediation efforts highlighted the escalating mistrust. High-level communications continue to save the ceasefire, according to this anonymous source. Foreign ministers from Pakistan, Qatar, and Egypt’s intelligence chief are leading these efforts, with involvement from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi leaders. The U.S. accuses Iran of delaying nuclear program talks and blames it for attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran counters, accusing the U.S. of violating agreements involving the strait and Lebanon ceasefire issues.
Michael Eisenstadt from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy argues that the negotiations continue, reflected in Trump’s statement that the deal might be over. Despite this, Trump has shown loss of interest in preserving the ceasefire, hinting at “finishing the job.” Iran’s lead negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, accused the U.S. of repeatedly violating the pact, claiming Iran’s necessary response. Qalibaf stated, “The era of bullying and extortion is over. We don’t fold,” on X.
Responses and Tensions
Pakistan, a ceasefire broker, insists renewed conflict isn’t beneficial and calls for dialogue to achieve peace. Trump, however, criticized Tehran’s leaders harshly, after previously describing them as rational. Vice President JD Vance, who helped with the initial ceasefire, mentioned Iran’s attacks on the strait and warned of strong U.S. retaliations. Before reaching the first ceasefire, Trump heightened threats, suggesting the U.S. might bomb Iranian infrastructure. He has often used aggressive tactics as leverage in negotiations.
Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group warned that escalating threats might be riskier now due to U.S. domestic and international stakes. However, Iran needs the promised economic relief, suggesting they might return to negotiations.
Despite mixed signals, Trump remains focused on preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Rising oil prices were initially downplayed, only for Trump to later acknowledge their economic impact. Falling oil prices post-deal were seen as a success.
Impact of Midterm Elections
Trump resumed threats to target Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including electrical and desalinization plants, and suggested seizing Kharg Island. He said, “We may take over Kharg Island. There’s not a thing they could do about it.” With midterm elections approaching, Republicans aim to maintain control of Congress. Rising oil prices could lead to higher gas costs for Americans. Trump attempted to minimize these concerns, asserting, “Any time we hit them, it goes up a little bit—$2.” Yet, oil futures rose significantly, showing potential continued increases. Trump conceded, “As oil goes, so goes everything else.”
Amiri and Magdy reported from New York and Cairo. Associated Press writer Munir Ahmed contributed from Islamabad.