A week after Republicans convened in Dallas for a national midterm convention aimed at energizing the party, two new polls indicate that Democrats are either leading or competitive in several key Texas races. These polls reveal internal conflicts within the state GOP.

Polls Indicate Tight Races

The Siena College/ReconMR poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race with 49% to 43%. Democrat Gina Hinojosa is leading Republican Governor Greg Abbott at 49% to 45%.

An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey presents a closer Senate race, with Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46%, while Abbott is leading Hinojosa 49% to 46%.

Political analyst Jacob Rubashkin warns that the Siena/ReconMR numbers could result in significant Republican losses.

The Impact on the Texas GOP

Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas Republican strategist, expressed concern about the polling outcomes, stating that the state GOP is working to avoid historic losses.

These results emerge alongside rising internal disputes. Recently, a photo posted by the Texas Republican Party sparked a contentious debate regarding the party’s direction.

Breakdown of the Polling Results

The Siena College/ReconMR poll, conducted from September 8-11 among 614 likely voters, shows Talarico’s lead increasing from a 47% to 43% margin in July to 49% to 43%.

Hinojosa’s advantage over Abbott grew sharper, now standing at 49% to 45%, compared to Abbott’s 46% to 45% lead in July.

Steinhauser noted that recent polls indicated competitive Texas races. While Republicans might still win, he acknowledged the possibility of Democratic victories.

The Siena College/ReconMR survey indicates Democrats narrowly lead in the lieutenant governor’s race, with Vikki Goodwin at 47% to Dan Patrick’s 46%.

In the attorney general race, Republican Mayes Middleton leads Nathan Johnson 45% to 44%.

The generic congressional ballot remains largely Republican, with 47% preferring Republican candidates compared to 46% for Democrats.

Independent Voter Shift

The ReconMR survey indicates significant movement among independent voters, with Hinojosa leading Abbott among independents 65% to 27%.

Talarico leads Paxton among independents 64% to 24%.

The ReconMR survey has a margin of error of ±4.3 percentage points.

The Emerson survey’s margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

Political Reactions

Steinhauser mentioned the challenging national political climate, charged with issues like affordability. He highlighted Talarico as a dynamic candidate gaining support from independents and Hispanic voters.

ReconMR finds Hinojosa with a 48% favorable rating, while Abbott holds 45%.

On economic issues, voters prefer Hinojosa over Abbott on affordability and water management. However, Abbott leads on border security and public safety.

The ReconMR survey shows 62% of voters believe Abbott will ultimately win.

Controversy and Division

Bo French’s controversial social media post further illustrates the ongoing division within the Texas GOP. Republicans, including Senator John Cornyn and Governor Greg Abbott, condemned his remarks.

This incident exposed tensions when a Texas GOP convention photo attracted racially charged comments online.

The controversy was inflamed by additional remarks from party members, receiving public criticism from within and outside the party.

Broader GOP Splits

The French incident is one of several disputes illustrating deeper splits within the Texas GOP. Longtime Republican strategist Karl Rove plans to vote for Democrat Jon Rosenthal against French in the Railroad Commission race.

The GOP’s division also surfaced in the Republican Senate primary, where Paxton defeated Cornyn amidst internal party strife.

At a recent convention, Trump urged Republicans to make the election a referendum on his presidency, though some questioned its efficacy with independent voters.

Steinhauser urges caution, pointing to the GOP’s longstanding dominance in Texas state offices since 1994. He acknowledges the current competitiveness within the polls.