A recent Fox News poll reveals a slight lead for Democratic State Representative James Talarico over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, sparking optimism for Democrats. This contest, long seen as a stronghold for Republicans, now appears to be fiercely competitive
In a state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat in decades, Talarico’s lead is backed by support from moderates, Black voters, younger Texans, and other critical demographics. Among highly motivated and interested voters, Talarico extends his lead to 6 points.
Responding to the poll, Paxton’s campaign spokesman, Nick Maddux, stressed the significance of Election Day, critiquing Talarico’s past positions and suggesting his campaign rests on unrealistic hopes. On the other side, Talarico’s campaign spokesperson, JT Ennis, highlighted Texans’ desire for change and criticized Paxton’s record.
Talarico criticized Paxton’s office for its handling of a plea deal involving attorney Adam Hoffman, charged with sexually abusing a young boy in Waco. Hoffman, who pleaded guilty to lesser charges, avoided registering as a sex offender, sparking further controversy.
The Fox News poll indicates Talarico with 51% against Paxton’s 48% among Texas registered voters, sampled from July 23 to July 27, with a 3% margin of error. The poll suggests Talarico benefits from greater voter enthusiasm, a critical factor in election outcomes.
Within the Senate, Republicans hold a 53-45 advantage, excluding independents who caucus with Democrats. Flipping the Texas seat is crucial for Democrats seeking control of the Senate. Meanwhile, Paxton, endorsed by Donald Trump, struggles to unite Republicans following a divisive primary against Senator John Cornyn.
Although Paxton retains significant support among men and rural voters, shifting dynamics among moderates might sustain the race’s competitiveness. Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who contributes to the Fox News polls, noted Paxton’s challenges in consolidating support among non-MAGA Republicans and independents.
Aside from the Fox News survey, other polls show varied results. The New York Times/Siena poll records a tie at 47%, and a Texas Public Opinion Research poll gives Talarico a 45% to 40% lead over Paxton. These different polls underscore the fluidity and competitiveness of this key Senate race.