In New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic Representative Chris Pappas received another polling setback against former Republican Senator John Sununu. This race is crucial for Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections.
Pappas and Sununu are considered frontrunners for their party nominations in the race to replace retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen. New Hampshire, which narrowly supported Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, is seen by Republicans as a potential gain due to Sununu’s candidacy. Sununu previously held the Senate seat from 2003 to 2009. However, Democrats believe Pappas, who serves in a swing district, is well-positioned for a win, especially amid national discontent with President Donald Trump.
Recent Poll Results
Two recent polls indicate Sununu holds a slight edge over Pappas. Despite this, experts still view Democrats as slightly favored. A poll by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates revealed a statistical tie, with Sununu at 37% and Pappas at 36%. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters between August 27-30, with a 4-point margin of error.
Similarly, a University of New Hampshire poll showed Sununu leading 45% to 43%. Meanwhile, Pappas led former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, another GOP primary candidate, by 5 points.
Chris Pappas’ campaign manager, Rachel Petri, emphasized Pappas’ commitment to engaging directly with voters, in contrast to Sununu, whom she accused of relying heavily on outside financial support.
Earlier Polling
Previous polls showed Pappas leading Sununu by single digits. A Saint Anselm College poll in August had Pappas 7 points ahead. Some GOP internals showed a tighter race, with Pappas ahead by a point in late June.
Focus on Key Issues
Both candidates prioritize affordability and the cost of living. Pappas highlights healthcare and anti-corruption efforts. Sununu also focuses on affordability and has criticized the war in Iran.
New Hampshire Primary
The state primary is scheduled for September 8. Sununu, endorsed by Trump, has strong GOP backing and leads in polls against Brown. Pappas also leads his primary opponent, scientist Karishma Manzur.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets maintain a Democratic advantage in the Senate race. As of Thursday, Democrats held an 83% probability of winning, according to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Implications of New Hampshire Loss for Democrats
A GOP victory in New Hampshire would complicate Democrats’ path to a Senate majority. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. Democrats aim to win four additional seats, with New Hampshire as a crucial battleground.
New Hampshire’s Political Landscape
New Hampshire has proven elusive for GOP leaders at the federal level, despite regularly electing Republican governors. The state remains politically competitive with strongholds in both parties. Independent voters, who make up a significant portion of the electorate, are crucial in deciding the outcome.
Major Democratic support comes from urban centers like Manchester and academic hubs such as Durham and Keene. Conversely, smaller towns and suburban areas in the southern region hold conservative leanings. The state’s independent voters remain a vital swing demographic for either candidate come November.