A recent study commissioned by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America highlighted how messages about North Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper’s abortion record swayed voter support. The study indicated that these messages shifted support toward Republican candidate Michael Whatley. The most impactful message focused on federal abortion legislation.
The organization claims it has reached over 770,000 homes in North Carolina. This outreach is part of a strategy targeting what is predicted to be a competitive Senate race. Republicans aim to maintain their Senate majority and fill the seat of the retiring Republican Senator, Thom Tillis.
Canvassers are directing their efforts towards persuadable and low-turnout voters. They discuss Cooper’s record on abortion, including his support for legislation that could override state restrictions and his vetoes as governor on state-level abortion limitations. Notably, Cooper vetoed a 2023 North Carolina law banning abortions after 12 weeks, which was later enacted when the Republican-controlled General Assembly overrode his veto.
“When it comes to the life issue, the matter that resonates in North Carolina is Gov. Cooper’s veto of the 12-week limit, which is popular. His veto was subsequently overridden, an unpopular move,” SBA Pro-Life America’s President Marjorie Dannenfelser told Fox News Digital.
A video revealed Cooper’s stance on health care for babies surviving attempted abortions. Dannenfelser noted that contrasting these issues with Michael Whatley’s pro-life positions significantly influenced voter direction.
The study’s analysis aimed to identify the most potent messages that could shift public opinion. Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America collaborated with Evolving Strategies to carry out a randomized-controlled trial. This trial tested four different messages concerning the Senate candidates’ positions on abortion in North Carolina. An online panel of 2,607 registered voters was used, matched with voter files and consumer data.
Respondents’ preferences were recorded after exposure to various messages. The study focused on estimating which voters were most persuadable. Their findings indicated a net positive shift for the Republican vote margin by +1.7 to nearly +5 points, depending on the message.
Strategies included targeting the best voter profiles without initial consideration for party affiliation or religious beliefs. “Our main goal is to find our best voters, regardless of party”, Dannenfelser explained. This strategy involves interacting with identified voters through door-to-door visits and digital communications.
Participants received one of four messages: “Fed,” criticizing Cooper’s support for federal legislation that reduces state authority on abortion laws; “Record,” highlighting his abortion record as governor; “Soft Positive” and “Hard Positive” messages, accentuating Whatley’s pro-life stances. The aggressive “Fed” and “Record” messages were most effective, shifting voter support by +4.9 and +3.2 points, respectively. The “Hard Positive” message increased support by +3.9 points compared to +1.7 points for the “Soft Positive” message.
For voters targeted as the most likely to be swayed, the study indicated a significant potential impact, with an increase in Republican support of +12 points or more.
“The messages are resonating well. Many voters feel abandoned by the Democratic Party, and these issues remain influential in North Carolina,” Dannenfelser said.