Upcoming Series: Mercury vs. Fever
The Indiana Fever (9-7) will face the Phoenix Mercury (5-12) at home on Monday. This marks the beginning of a two-game series for Indiana, following their back-to-back losses to the Atlanta Dream. As of 1:30 p.m. ET, FanDuel sets Indiana’s moneyline at -290, with the Fever being a -7.5 favorite on a total of 177.5 points.
Prior to their losses to Atlanta, the Fever had been on a four-game winning streak. Conversely, Phoenix recently ended a four-game losing stretch by defeating the Seattle Storm 93-73.
This matchup between Mercury and Fever is their first meeting this season. In the previous year, Phoenix won two of their three matches against Indiana. However, Indiana managed to cover the spread twice, with Caitlin Clark absent from all those games.
Player Highlight: Caitlin Clark vs. Angel Reese
Caitlin Clark of the Indiana Fever drives to the basket against Angel Reese of the Atlanta Dream during the second quarter at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, on June 20, 2026. (Colin Hubbard/Getty Images)
Caitlin Clark presents impressive statistics, scoring 26.0 points on 49.4% shooting, along with averaging 8.6 assists over her last five games. Yet, she struggles with ball control, leading the WNBA with 4.8 turnovers per game. These factors contribute to a betting preference for the Mercury on Monday.
Best Bet: Phoenix Mercury +7.5
Caitlin Clark’s defense and decision-making are areas of concern. She has a -4.3 on/off net rating this year, including 48 turnovers from poor passes, considerably more than her teammates.
The Mercury have advantageous turnover rates and can capitalize on these aspects against Indiana. Although Phoenix is the oldest team, they possess seasoned players like Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner. These veterans can exploit Indiana’s frequent mistakes.
Player Insight: Alyssa Thomas of Phoenix
Caitlin Clark debuts new Nike signature shoe in loss to Atlanta Dream. (Photo by A.J. Mast/NBAE via Getty Images)
Alyssa Thomas stands out for her game, ranking second on Phoenix in PER and leading in assists without shooting any 3-pointers this year. Phoenix’s offense, channeled through Thomas, might counter Indiana’s weak perimeter defense. The Fever excel in transition, yet Phoenix’s control over possessions could mitigate this.
Foul Line Advantage and Game Predictions
Caitlin Clark and the Fever put up a strong performance but lose to Atlanta Dream. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Phoenix is more disciplined at the free-throw line, allowing fewer attempts than any team, whereas Indiana permits the most.
The Mercury has a rest advantage. This game is their third in a week, whereas the Fever is playing their fourth. Despite expecting Indiana to win, Phoenix +7.5 remains a favorable bet given the matchup advantages.
Prediction: Fever 79, Mercury 76