This fall marks the third year since colleges began admitting classes following the Supreme Court’s decision to end race-conscious admissions. As the effects of this ruling start to reveal themselves, interpreting the full picture has become challenging. New research highlights that the proportion of first-year students with an ‘unknown’ race or ethnicity increased from 3.3% before the ruling to 4% in 2024. This change was more pronounced at Ivy Plus institutions and Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs).

While the increase is modest overall, understanding this shift is crucial to evaluating how admissions are evolving and whether opportunities are expanding or narrowing. Much of the public discourse has centered around enrollment changes at highly selective colleges. To provide a more comprehensive view, the Lumina Foundation collaborated with admissions researcher James Murphy from Class Action on two reports released this year.

Enrollment Patterns Across Higher Education

The first report analyzes enrollment changes at over 3,000 institutions. It examines federal data from these schools, encompassing over 3.5 million first-time enrollments. Murphy compared the class of 2024 to the average of 2022 and 2023. At Ivy Plus institutions, the enrollment of underrepresented students of color dropped by 4.33 percentage points, nearly a 19% decrease. Black student enrollment fell by 25%, while Hispanic enrollment decreased by around 15%. In contrast, state flagship universities saw an 8% increase in underrepresented students.

White and Asian American enrollment remained relatively stable across most institutions. However, Asian American enrollment grew at Ivy Plus institutions. Murphy describes these shifts as a ‘cascade effect,’ where declines at selective institutions coincide with increases at less selective ones.

The Rise of ‘Unknown’ Race Reporting

Across all institutions, the share of first-year students with race reported as ‘unknown’ rose from 3.3% before the ruling to 4% in 2024. Although over 95% of first-year students still had their race or ethnicity reported, the increase varied. At Ivy Plus institutions, non-reporting jumped from 3.2% to 5.8%, while at HBCUs, it rose from 3.2% to 4.9%. Public four-year institutions and state flagships experienced smaller increases.

Only a quarter of all institutions saw non-reporting increase by more than 1 percentage point. The report also extends beyond enrollment, examining 115 colleges with data on applications, admissions, and enrollment. Among this group, non-reporting among applicants increased by 0.7 percentage points, mirroring the national enrollment trend. Less selective institutions recorded the highest non-reporting rates before and after the ruling, along with the largest increase.

Complex Interpretations and Future Outlook

The data resists simple interpretations. Some students may choose not to report race, believing it offers an advantage. Others might be uncertain about permissible disclosures, or how institutions use their information. The ‘unknown’ category could also reflect changing identities, category limitations, or reporting errors.

The report found no correlation between non-reporting and changes in enrollment shares for specific racial or ethnic groups. Therefore, it’s inappropriate to use ‘unknown’ to adjust numbers for other groups. The Hechinger Report’s analysis of admissions essays highlights that some students continue to articulate how race shaped their experiences, while others de-emphasize it.

Understanding the long-term impacts of these shifts requires additional data on access, completion, and economic mobility. Who enrolls, where, and who completes a degree are vital to assessing the ruling’s effects. Guidance from the National Association for College Admission Counseling can support students and professionals through these changes.

With only one year of comprehensive post-ruling enrollment data available, more federal admissions data are anticipated. It could offer insights into application, admission, and enrollment trends, though the timeline for obtaining full data remains uncertain. As this academic year begins, a new class will contribute to this evolving narrative. Future data will clarify whether current patterns are temporary or enduring, and whether student enrollment changes translate into differences in college completion and ensuing economic opportunities.

Jasmine Davis-Randolph, Ph.D., is the strategy officer for research at Lumina Foundation, supporting lifelong learning beyond high school. James Murphy is a senior fellow at Class Action, focusing on public trust through inclusive practices.

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