Prediction markets shifted toward the United States after FIFA’s committee removed striker Folarin Balogun’s suspension, allowing him to face Belgium in the World Cup Round of 16. This decision transformed the match from a tough challenge into a balanced competition, as the U.S. strives to remain the last host nation in the tournament.

Market Reactions

On Kalshi, the “USA advance” contract increased to 53 percent from mid-to-upper 40s. Polymarket placed the U.S. at 39 percent to win compared to Belgium’s 34 percent, and 28 percent for a draw.

Betting odds adjusted after Balogun’s clearance. At DraftKings, U.S. odds shifted from -115 to -140, and Hard Rock Bet adjusted from -105 to -120. Hard Rock Bet also changed the regulation win odds from +180 to +155. A spokesperson noted price adjustments following the announcement.

FanDuel adjusted lines similarly, with the U.S. to advance at -122 and Belgium at +100, contrary to weekend predictions.

Understanding American Odds

American odds use negative numbers to show required bets for a $100 win. Larger negatives indicate stronger favorites. Positive numbers show payouts on a $100 bet, with higher values for bigger underdogs. A shift to larger negative numbers reflects stronger favoritism.

The Red Card and Its Overturn

Balogun received a red card in the U.S.’s 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina. A video assistant referee review upgraded his challenge on Tarik Muharemović’s ankle to a red card. This automatically led to a one-match suspension that FIFA initially upheld.

31 hours before the Belgium match, FIFA reversed the suspension, citing Article 27 FDC for a one-year probation. Former President Donald Trump thanked FIFA and confirmed his involvement, having urged a review. Behind the scenes, key U.S. figures supported legal efforts and worked with U.S. Soccer officials to present their appeal to FIFA.

Belgium Protests FIFA’s Decision

Belgium opposed FIFA’s decision, challenging the suspension overturn for Balogun. UEFA criticized FIFA for misusing authority after reported pressure from Trump.

Sepp Blatter commented against political interference, emphasizing rule-based decision-making.

U.S. coach Mauricio Pochettino distanced himself from the process, rejecting political lobbying.

European Concerns

The issue expanded beyond soccer, with European leaders warning against political influence in sports.

A European Commission spokesperson emphasized decisions should be based on objective criteria.

Belgium’s Foreign Minister criticized FIFA’s decision as undermining football’s basic rules.

Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer advocated for sport autonomy, opposing political intervention.

USA vs. Belgium: Head-to-Head History

The U.S. and Belgium share a longstanding World Cup rivalry, with Belgium leading 6-1 in their meetings. Their last clash, in the 2014 Round of 16, ended with Belgium’s 2-1 victory after extra time, marking a significant U.S. World Cup defeat.

A U.S. triumph on Monday would secure a quarterfinal spot for the first time since 2002.

The Last Host Standing

With Canada and Mexico out, the U.S. remains the sole host nation in the tournament, alongside soccer powerhouses like Argentina and France.

A loss to Belgium would conclude North America’s hosting period at this stage, while a victory advances them further.

The match is set for 8 p.m. ET at Lumen Field in Seattle, broadcast on FOX and Telemundo.