The recent Independence Day festivities, filled with parades, flags, and speeches, raise a critical question: Does the United States still value one of its foundational elements—immigration? This issue isn’t solely about America’s past; it is crucial for its economic future.
Recently, the nation has experienced a decline in immigration. Factors like fewer green card allocations, travel bans from certain countries, reduced refugee and asylum approvals, and other restrictions contribute to this trend. As per the U.S. Census Bureau, net international migration reached 2.7 million in 2024 but fell to 1.3 million in 2025. Projections indicate a further drop to 321,000 in 2026, marking a historic decline.
Immigration restrictions stem from various concerns, primarily the perceived negative impact on state and local budgets. While these concerns are valid, it’s important not to overlook the potential benefits. A study spanning from 2008 to 2023 shows a 1 percent increase in state population due to immigration aligns with a 1.5 percent rise in private sector GDP for goods and services. This increase in income is more significant than the population growth.
The economic impact varies by state. In simulations, a 1 percent rise in state population from immigrants elevates private-sector GDP by 0.57 to 4.41 percent, depending on the state. States like West Virginia, Montana, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Wyoming, with smaller immigrant populations, witness large economic effects. States known for economic freedom, such as New Hampshire, South Dakota, Idaho, and Tennessee, also show substantial impacts.
These findings are crucial given demographic trends affecting the U.S. economy. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), population growth rates are set to decline over the next 30 years. Without immigration, the U.S. population is projected to decrease starting in 2030.
An aging population intensifies this concern. The CBO predicts the ratio of those aged 25 to 64 to those over 65 will drop from 2.7 now to 2.2 in the next three decades. This means fewer working-age individuals, fewer innovators, reduced contributions to social programs, and fewer caregivers for seniors.
States also face implications. Despite immigration law being federal, national legislators can reform laws to benefit their states. Particularly, representatives from rural states and those with minimal government restrictions stand to gain the most from reform.
Ironically, states most concerned about immigration are those facing population loss and workforce issues, making them prime candidates for immigration benefits. They can adopt policies to reap more from immigration, such as lowering taxes, reducing government size, and easing regulations. Facilitating easier employment, business startups, credential transfers, and licensing for newcomers can hasten their integration and contributions.
Americans often take pride in being a nation of immigrants, as expressed in the Statue of Liberty’s sonnet, “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.” A record-high 79 percent of Americans report to Gallup that they see immigration as positive.
For those worried that immigrants may deplete resources by consuming more than they produce, the study offers reassurance. Immigration not only gives people worldwide a shot at the American Dream; it also allows Americans to benefit from those who pursue it. For many states, particularly those seeking growth, newcomers offer opportunities for building the next economy.
John Bitzan serves as the Menard Family Director of the Sheila and Robert Challey Institute for Global Innovation and Growth at North Dakota State University.