Democrat Chris Pappas is facing a tightening race against Republican John E. Sununu for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire. The latest Rasumussen Reports poll indicates Pappas has 49% support compared to Sununu’s 44%. This marks a decrease from the previous month when Pappas held an 11-point lead at 45%, while Sununu had 34%.
Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s upcoming retirement opens this seat for election in November. The Cook Political Report categorizes the race as a toss-up. Historically, midterm elections challenge the ruling party, often resulting in losses. Currently, Republicans have a slim majority in Congress.
In the 2024 presidential race, former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly won New Hampshire against President Donald Trump. The state hasn’t elected a Republican senator in over 15 years. Newsweek reached out to both candidates’ campaigns through email for comments.
What To Know About the New Poll
In the latest poll, Sununu has shown gains. Meanwhile, 3% would support Constitution Party’s Edmond Laplante, and 4% remain undecided. Pappas attracts 89% of Democrats, 15% of Republicans, and 40% of independents. Sununu secures 84% of Republicans, 8% of Democrats, and 44% of independents. Among women, Pappas leads with 53% compared to Sununu’s 33%. Conversely, Sununu finds favor with 53% of men, against 42% for Pappas.
Pappas, age 46, has strong support from those over 65, with 58% favoring him. In contrast, Sununu, age 62, who served from 2003 to 2009, is more popular with voters under 40. The poll surveyed 979 likely voters from October 2-4, with a 3% margin of error.
Rasmussen Reports is seen as “Lean Right” by AllSides, suggesting moderate conservative alignment. Political expert Craig Agranoff from Florida Atlantic University commented on the narrow opportunity for Republicans in New Hampshire. He mentioned that while Sununu reducing the gap fits a toss-up scenario, there’s much to overcome for a GOP win.
Agranoff emphasized the importance of this race for control of the Senate. He pointed out that a 5-point deficit with one month remaining signifies an ongoing contest but not a guaranteed path to victory.
What Other Polls Show
University of New Hampshire’s recent polling has Pappas at 50%, leading Sununu at 42%. The survey included 1,418 likely voters from September 17-21, with a 2.6% margin of error. In contrast, August figures from the same poll indicated Sununu ahead with 45%, narrowly beating Pappas’ 43%.
Another poll by co/efficient last month showed both candidates tied at 46%, with 9% undecided. Pappas’ favorability stood at 37% unfavorably viewed by 51%, and 13% voicing no opinion. Sununu had 41% favorability, 47% unfavorable, and 12% with no opinion. The survey covered 958 likely voters from September 9-11, with a 3.15% error margin.