In “The Godfather,” a particular scene stands out where Don Vito Corleone warns his counterparts about the repercussions of harm befalling his son. He highlights the consequences of hiding behind coincidences or lack of proof. This analogy is useful for NATO and the EU when dealing with Russian aggression.

At present, Western nations often hesitate to blame Russia without concrete evidence. This approach inadvertently aids Russia, which uses tactics to ensure no direct evidence can be found or disclosed without risking intelligence sources.

Reversing the Presumption

Western nations traditionally uphold a presumption of innocence. While crucial in justice systems, this should not extend to geopolitical matters involving Russia. Putin has repeatedly engaged in provocative actions like invasions, cyberattacks, and political interference while denying responsibility.

For too long, Russia has operated in a gray zone, executing harmful actions without clear attribution. Moscow uses various methods to blur its involvement, from anonymous hackers to fabricated movements, making it challenging for NATO and the EU to respond decisively.

A New Approach

When NATO or the EU faces acts of sabotage or instability characteristic of Russian methods, Moscow should be presumed responsible unless overwhelming evidence suggests otherwise. This would counteract Russia’s strategy of exploiting the West’s demand for proof.

Each offensive move should incur costs greater than the benefits gained by Russia. Rather than symmetrical retaliation, the West should act on varying fronts, imposing consequences in intelligence, military capabilities, or economic areas valuable to Putin.

Strategic Silence

The West should not feel the obligation to publicize every retaliatory move. Silence can serve as a tool similar to how Russia conceals its operations. Uncertainty can deter future aggression if Putin is left guessing about how, when, and where the West will respond.

This policy change requires careful judgment, continual intelligence evaluation, and coordinated action among allies. The aim is to eliminate the notion that Putin can act with impunity due to a lack of direct evidence. Deterrence will be achieved when Russia knows any aggression will lead to significant, albeit undisclosed, countermeasures.