Campaign Contributions Analysis
In the latest reporting period, Spencer Pratt, who is a candidate for the Los Angeles mayoral race, raised more money from contributions than any other candidate. According to campaign finance filings, Pratt secured roughly $2.72 million between April 19 and May 16. In comparison, the incumbent mayor, Karen Bass, raised approximately $283,000 during the same window, as noted in the filings submitted to the Los Angeles Ethics Commission. Additionally, Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman reported raising around $400,000, which included a substantial $60,000 loan to her own campaign, as per the Los Angeles Times.
Overall, Pratt has accumulated a total of $3.26 million in contributions by May 16, slightly ahead of Bass, who reported $3.13 million. Meanwhile, Raman’s total contributions amounted to more than $931,000.
Impact of Pratt’s Candidacy
Spencer Pratt, a reality TV star who entered the mayoral race after losing his home to the Palisades Fire, has launched a campaign driven by viral videos. He has criticized Bass’s approach to managing the fire and other issues like public safety and homelessness. With the June 2 election nearing, early voting is ongoing.
Pratt’s impressive fundraising suggests he could gather enough votes to advance to the November runoff. Despite this, he faces significant challenges in a city predominantly supportive of Democrats, having not elected a Republican mayor since 1997. Although the mayoral election in Los Angeles is nonpartisan, Pratt, a registered Republican, has gained backing from President Donald Trump.
Polling indicates Bass remains the frontrunner, although she might not secure a lead that helps her avoid a runoff. Pratt and Raman are closely contesting for second place, based on recent surveys.
Analysis of Polling Data
An Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey indicated 30 percent support for Bass, an increase from 20 percent in March. Meanwhile, Pratt’s support rose from 10 percent to 22 percent, and Raman holds third place with 19 percent. The number of undecided voters decreased sharply from 51 percent in March to 16 percent in May.
The poll was conducted between May 9 and 10, soon after Bass, Pratt, and Raman participated in a mayoral debate. It surveyed 1,000 likely primary voters, with a margin of error of 3 percent.
Another poll conducted by Tavern Research also showed Bass ahead with 22 percent support. Pratt and Raman followed with 18 and 16 percent, respectively. Initially, 46 percent remained undecided, but this number fell to 29 percent after follow-up questioning.
This survey was based on 531 likely Los Angeles primary voters, conducted online from May 1 to 4, with a margin of error of 6.1 percent.
Prediction Market Insights
Prediction markets, often used to gauge event probabilities, have given Bass increasing odds over recent days. These platforms can aggregate information more rapidly than polls but are susceptible to biases and speculative changes.
As of Monday morning, Bass had a trading percentage of 71 percent, climbing from 56 percent a week prior. Pratt’s trading percentage fell to 22 percent from 24 percent, while Raman’s slipped to approximately 10 percent from 16 percent.
Similarly, Kalshi, a regulated exchange in the U.S., reflected these trends. On Monday morning, Bass had a trading price of 67 percent, Pratt 27 percent, and Raman around 7 percent.
Upcoming Election Events
The primary election is set for June 2. If no candidate secures a majority, the two leading candidates will proceed to a runoff on November 3.