The Republican runoff election for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas concluded, marking the end of a contentious and costly primary battle. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton received a significant endorsement from President Donald Trump. Trump recommended Paxton over the incumbent, Sen. John Cornyn, signaling Trump’s continued efforts to shape the GOP by removing leaders he considers insufficiently loyal to him.
Trump’s endorsement offered a late advantage to Paxton and placed Cornyn at risk of becoming the first Republican senator in Texas to seek re-election and lose the party’s nomination. The Cornyn campaign, along with supportive groups, has spent around $90 million on advertising primarily attacking Paxton.
This contest reflects Trump’s strategy to punish Republicans he perceives as disloyal. Trump’s influence among primary voters remains strong, as seen in his successful backing of challengers to incumbents in states such as Louisiana, Kentucky, and Indiana.
Paxton’s team and supporting Super PACs began promoting Trump’s endorsement immediately after it was announced. Despite acknowledging the endorsement’s impact, Cornyn did not concede, stating, “I know who gets to choose our senators, and it’s the people of Texas.” The winner of the runoff will face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the upcoming November elections.
Additional Runoffs and Campaign Dynamics
The same election cycle will determine Democratic U.S. House nominees for districts in Dallas and Houston. These areas are known to heavily favor Democrats. Additionally, a seat near San Antonio could possibly be won by the Democratic Party.
In the March primary, Cornyn led Paxton but did not secure a majority, leading to a runoff. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt was also in the race but finished in third place. Cornyn’s campaign focused on Paxton’s personal and ethical issues, including his 2023 impeachment trial, where allegations of extramarital affairs emerged. Following this, Paxton’s wife filed for divorce.
Ads have continued to target Paxton, with pro-Cornyn groups outspending Paxton’s campaign and allied Super PACs significantly. Trump’s delayed but eventual endorsement of Paxton came after early voting began, stating on social media that Paxton “is a Fighter, and knows how to win. Our Country needs Fighters, and also Loyalty to the Cause of Greatness.” Opposition groups have recently criticized the handling of a sexual abuse case by the Attorney General’s office.
Impact of Trump’s Endorsements
Trump’s endorsement strategy has also affected other Republican candidates. He criticized Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana before he lost his primary for the office he has held since 2015. Trump had publicly supported challengers in other states as well. Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky also lost his primary after criticism from Trump.
Cornyn has been at odds with Trump in the past regarding the 2024 presidential run and Trump’s border wall plans. He has defended his record of support for Trump’s agenda, despite Trump’s claims to the contrary.
Republican strategists argue that a Paxton nomination could result in higher costs for promotion in the general election. This could divert funds from defending Republican seats in other competitive states. For Democrats to secure a majority, they need to gain an additional four seats.
Democratic Contenders
Democratic candidates are also contending for U.S. House nominations in Texas. In the 18th District, recently elected Rep. Christian Menefee and Veteran Rep. Al Green are candidates after district maps were redrawn to favor Republicans. The ongoing elections in Houston mark the end of a complex electoral period, with Menefee narrowly leading Green in the primary but failing to win outright.
In the Dallas-area 33rd District, former Rep. Colin Allred is competing against U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson. Allred previously lost a Senate race to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and seeks to return to the House.
In San Antonio, Democratic leaders aim to prevent Maureen Galindo, who has expressed antisemitic views, from advancing in the runoff. They support Johnny Garcia in the 35th District as Democrats see potential for winning the seat despite redistricting efforts.