The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported an increased likelihood that a disturbance east of the United States in the Atlantic Ocean may develop into a tropical storm within the next seven days. This announcement follows a notably quiet Atlantic hurricane season.
The hurricane season, which began on June 1 and runs through November 30, has yet to produce a hurricane this year. In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a below-average season with an expected eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes. So far, five tropical storms have formed, most recently Tropical Storm Edouard on August 31.
El Niño, a climatic pattern characterized by warmer sea temperatures and reduced trade winds in the tropical Pacific, has significantly slowed this year’s hurricane activity. Forecasts indicate El Niño may strengthen by year’s end, with a strong chance to intensify in fall and winter. While El Niño’s main effects are observed during cooler months, it influences hurricane seasons in both the Atlantic and Pacific. In the Atlantic, it often increases wind shear, disrupting storm development. Conversely, it promotes storm formation in the Pacific due to warmer waters and less wind shear.
Although El Niño has subdued the Atlantic hurricane season so far, a new disturbance near Bermuda could indicate this pattern is changing. NHC meteorologists are closely monitoring this area, which may develop into a tropical storm within a week. Newsweek contacted the NHC for comments on Monday.
The current disturbance tracked by meteorologists holds a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm, which would be named Fay. As of Monday afternoon, the area of interest was about 1,000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, generating disorganized thunderstorms. Forecast maps show the disturbance moving westward toward the U.S. East Coast.
“Environmental conditions over the system are forecast to become more conducive for development by the middle of this week,” the NHC noted. “A tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves slowly off to the west-northwest over the subtropical Atlantic.”
Meteorologists at AccuWeather also identified a medium chance for this disturbance to develop into a storm, predicting a potential formation between September 17 and 21. Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno explained that atmospheric conditions might allow the storm system to evolve into a tropical or subtropical storm.
While wind shear remains prevalent across the Atlantic Basin, its impact is reduced near Bermuda, potentially allowing the disturbance to develop.
Comparison of the 2026 and 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons
The previous year’s season recorded 13 named storms, one hurricane, and four major hurricanes. By this time last year, six named storms, including the major hurricane Erin, had formed. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Named Storms in 2026
- Tropical Storm Arthur: June 17
- Tropical Storm Bertha: July 19
- Tropical Storm Cristobal: August 12
- Tropical Storm Dolly: August 27
- Tropical Storm Edouard: August 31
Three of these storms developed in the Gulf of America, affecting nearby states with rain and winds.
Future Observations
Currently, no tropical storm watches or warnings are active. The NHC will continue to monitor the disturbance, providing updates on its progress. Despite this year’s below-average hurricane forecast, officials caution that any storm can cause significant impacts. Residents in hurricane-prone regions should stay informed and ready to respond to potential storm developments.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Samantha Beech and Geoffrey Rowland.